Reading TCI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEReal EstateReal Estate ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact TCI's prospects. Peer multiples imply a price about 88% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include the potential for a reversal in interest rates and the performance of sector bellwethers like CBRE, BEKE, and JLL. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $38.64. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $39 TCI trades at 36× p/e — 1.8× the 19× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $21 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 88% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.17x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$181.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$571.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,381.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could indicate a stronger market position for TCI.
Confirms:Revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year in the next reporting period.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TCI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit “99.1” attached hereto, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, unless we specifically incorporate it by reference in a document filed under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. We undertake no duty or obligation to publicly update or revise the information furnished pursuant to
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Real Estate Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TCI Transcontinental Realty Investors, Inc. | — | expensive | elevated |
CBRE CBRE Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | fair | moderate |
JLL Jones Lang LaSalle | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CSGP CoStar Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
COMP Compass, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Why it matters: If the real estate sector gets better, TCI may gain from a stronger market.
Confirms:Sector performance shifts from headwind to neutral or better in the next quarter.
Disproves:Sector performance remains a headwind or worsens.
in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit “99.1” attached hereto, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, unless we specifically incorporate it by reference in a document filed under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. We undertake no duty or obligation to publicly update or revise the information furnished pursuant to
in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit “99.1” attached hereto, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, unless we specifically incorporate it by reference in a document filed under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. We undertake no duty or obligation to publicly update or revise the information furnished pursuant to
in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit “99.1” attached hereto, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, unless we specifically incorporate it by reference in a document filed under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. We undertake no duty or obligation to publicly update or revise the information furnished pursuant to