Reading OPEN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OPEN free→Reading OPEN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OPEN free→NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, OPEN trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 60% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.61. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $4.61 OPEN trades at 1× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $11 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 60% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -46%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.78x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, the US dollar.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.04 → $-0.03 (+26.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 22% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$269.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,109.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,796.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may show economic problems. This could affect Opendoor's market.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims drop below 200,000.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OPEN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 7, 2026, Opendoor Technologies Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Real Estate Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OPEN Opendoor Technologies Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CBRE CBRE Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | moderate |
JLL Jones Lang LaSalle | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CSGP CoStar Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
COMP Compass, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | fair | elevated |
18 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Opendoor aims to reach Adjusted EBITDA breakeven for the second quarter of 2026.
Opendoor expects a 25% increase in revenue from Q1 to Q2 2026.
Opendoor focuses on managing cash from operations to improve financial stability.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can impact Opendoor's home sales. Strong sales may boost demand for their services.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Opendoor can improve its financial losses. This is key for investor confidence.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows smaller losses or a return to making money.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows ongoing losses or worse financial results.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 19, 2026, Opendoor Technologies Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of President On December 15, 2025, Opendoor Technologies Inc. (the “Company”) announced the appointment of Lucas Matheson as President of the Company, effective as of his employment start date, which is anticipated to be December 22, 2025. As of December 10, 2025, Shrisha Radhakrishna will no longer serve as President of the Company but…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Warrant Dividend Distribution On November 6, 2025, Opendoor Technologies Inc. (the “Company”), announced that the Board of Directors of the Company declared a distribution (the “Warrant Distribution”) to the holders of record of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”), in the form of warrants to purchase shares of Common Stock (the “Warrants”). The Warrants were issued on the terms and conditions described in the…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 6, 2025, Opendoor Technologies Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.