Reading NMRK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NMRK free→Reading NMRK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NMRK free→NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, NMRK is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 49% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 NMRK trades at 9× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $30 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 49% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.96x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.40 → $0.38 (-6.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$188.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$309.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,908.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes affect real estate financing. A rate hike could pressure Newmark's business.
Confirms:FOMC raises rates by 25 basis points or more.
Disproves:FOMC keeps rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NMRK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of Form 8-K and shall be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. All other information set forth in Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished. DISCUSSION OF FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ABOUT NEWMARK Statements in the press release in Exhibit 99.1 of this Current Report on Form 8-K regarding Newmark that are not historical facts are “forward-looking statements” that involve risks and uncertainties, which…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Real Estate Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NMRK Newmark Group, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CBRE CBRE Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | moderate |
JLL Jones Lang LaSalle | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CSGP CoStar Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
COMP Compass, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | fair | elevated |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Newmark aims for double-digit top- and bottom-line growth for the third consecutive year in 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance raised to $3.775B - $3.875B for 2026, indicating a focus on achieving double-digit growth. However, revenue in 2026-Q1 was $846.5M, down from $1.006B in 2025-Q4, showing limited progress towards this goal.
“We are raising our full year outlook and expect Newmark to deliver double-digit growth.”
“Newmark anticipates that over 90% of its earnings growth will be organic in 2026.”
Newmark targets Adjusted EBITDA between $656M and $694M for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance increased to $656M - $694M for 2026, reflecting a growth target. However, operating income in 2026-Q1 was $26.96M, down from $123.62M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards this target.
Newmark continues to maintain a dividend of $0.03 per share as part of its capital allocation strategy.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share remains at $0.03, consistent with previous quarters. This reflects a stable capital allocation strategy, despite fluctuations in net income, which was $14.42M in 2026-Q1, down from $27.28M in 2025-Q4.
Why it matters: Retail sales impact demand for commercial real estate. Strong sales may boost Newmark's outlook.
Confirms:Retail sales growth reported above 0.5% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales growth reported below 0.5% month over month.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. The information set forth in
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Other Events. On April 17, 2026, Newmark Group, Inc. (“Newmark” or the “Company”) entered into the Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (“Third A&R Credit Agreement”), which amends and restates that certain Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement dated as of April 26, 2024 (as amended, restated, supplemented or otherwise modified prior to the date hereof, the “Existing Credit Agreement”), by and among the Company, the several financial institutions from time to time party thereto,…
of Form 8-K and shall be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. All other information set forth in Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished. DISCUSSION OF FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ABOUT NEWMARK Statements in the press release in Exhibit 99.1 of this Current Report on Form 8-K regarding Newmark that are not historical facts are “forward-looking statements” that involve risks and uncertainties, which…
“Adjusted EBITDA (millions) $656 - $694 17% - 23%.”
“Adjusted EBITDA (millions) $635 - $675.”
“Dividend per share remains at $0.03.”
“Dividend per share remains at $0.03.”
“Dividend per share remains at $0.03.”
“Dividend per share remains at $0.03.”