Reading FRPH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect performance compared to sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 539% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $23.47. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $23, FRPH's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 11× p/s (7.4× the 1× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~547% near-term growth vs our ~4% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $3.63 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 547% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted 44.67x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated robust grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$93.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$237.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,498.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can impact real estate investments. They also change borrowing costs.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates by more than 25 basis points.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FRPH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Changes in the Registrant's Certifying Accountant. The Audit Committee of the Board of Directors of FRP Holdings, Inc. recently conducted a competitive selection process to determine the Company's independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026. The Audit Committee invited several of the largest U.S. public accounting firms to participate in this process, including Baker Tilly US, LLP ("Baker Tilly"), the Company's independent registered public accou…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Real Estate Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FRPH FRP Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CBRE CBRE Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | moderate |
JLL Jones Lang LaSalle | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CSGP CoStar Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
COMP Compass, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | fair | elevated |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a positive shift in the real estate sector.
Confirms:Real estate revenue growth exceeds 7% year over year.
Disproves:Real estate revenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Retail sales trends can indicate demand for real estate and economic health.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 12, 2026, FRP Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing results of operations for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this report (including the exhibit) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall no…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 10, 2026, FRP Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing results of operations for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this report (including the exhibit) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and sh…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2025, FRP Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing results of operations for the second quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this report (including the exhibit) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2025, FRP Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing results of operations for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this report (including the exhibit) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall…