Newmark Group, Inc. (NMRK)

NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$11.52-2.54%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Newmark Group, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.11B
EPS	—	0.758
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.8B
EPS	$1.87–$1.98non-GAAP	1.907
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.12B
EPS	—	2.092

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA between $656M and $694M in 2026	Adjusted EBITDA target is $656M to $694M.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $656M in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised from $635M-$675M to $656M-$694M for 2026, up from $562.4M actual in 2025. The trajectory shows management maintaining and increasing EBITDA targets consistent with prior commitments. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain dividend of $0.03 per share	The company pays a steady dividend of $0.03 per share.	Intact	Dividend falls below $0.03 per share in FY26	Dividend per share: $0.06 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.03 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20260.06 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 928f4022-0dbe-4385-8ec3-dd6b40da6762. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The quarterly dividend per share was increased from $0.03 to $0.06 in early 2026 and maintained through Q2 2026. This reflects management's commitment to returning capital to shareholders with a growing dividend. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve revenue of $3.775B to $3.875B in 2026	A primary condition in Newmark Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.775B.	Intact	Revenue falls below $3.775B in FY26	Revenue: $888.419M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.775B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026888,419,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 928f4022-0dbe-4385-8ec3-dd6b40da6762. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Total revenues grew 21.8% year-to-date through 2026-Q2 from $1,424.6M to $1,734.9M, and Adjusted EPS increased 36.5% from $0.52 to $0.71. Management's trajectory is delivering consistent double-digit top- and bottom-line growth as committed. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$2.18 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$4.16B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.18	$4,155,057,200	7 / 5
2026-07-25	$2.18	$4,155,057,200	7 / 5
2026-07-26	$2.18	$4,155,057,200	7 / 5
2026-07-27	$2.18	$4,155,057,200	7 / 5
2026-07-28	$2.18	$4,155,057,200	7 / 5
2026-07-29	$2.18	$4,155,057,200	7 / 5
2026-07-30	$2.18	$4,155,057,200	7 / 5
2026-07-31	$2.18	$4,155,057,200	7 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	$2.20	$4,196,457,400	7 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-04	$2.20	$4,196,457,400	7 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-06	$2.20	$4,196,457,400	7 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	$2.20	$4,196,457,400	7 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-10	$2.20	$4,196,457,400	7 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	1
2026-06-01	6	1
2026-07-01	6	1
2026-08-01	6	1
2026-09-01	6	1
2026-10-01	6	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerOct 12 · prior Jun 29

$19.00 → $14.00-26.3%

$0$10.45$20.90

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA between $656M and $694M in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain dividend of $0.03 per shareDividend per share: $0.06 per share
Achieve revenue of $3.775B to $3.875B in 2026Revenue: $888.419M

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-41.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Newmark Group, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a real estate services growth story with some cyclical exposure, rather than a proven steady compounder. The long-term thesis is supported by growth and raised EBITDA guidance, but fragile earnings quality, a CEO transition, and recent results below the industry cohort leave the thesis on watch.

What's priced into Newmark Group, Inc.

The evidence describes NMRK as cheap versus peers, while also showing a 38% premium versus peers and a negative expectations gap, so the valuation picture is mixed. The priced-in assessment is labeled justified, with low fragility, but that does not remove the business risks or recent execution concerns.

What the fundamentals likely do

Through the first half of 2026, year-to-date revenue grew 21.8% and adjusted EPS grew 36.5%; management also raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance. Near term, the July earnings miss and a run of consecutive misses create execution risk, while management has reaffirmed guidance and the dividend increase has been maintained through Q2.

What Newmark Group, Inc. hinges on

The thesis depends on management delivering its 2026 growth and EBITDA goals despite the recent miss and CEO transition. Fed rate cuts and continued strong results from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative.