Newmark Group, Inc. (NMRK)
NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$14.65-1.21%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Newmark aims for double-digit revenue growth in 2026. Adjusted EBITDA target is $656M to $694M. The company pays a steady dividend of $0.03 per share. Recent earnings beats show improving results.
Revenue and profit fell in early 2026. The company faces sector headwinds. Capital allocation shows some financial strain.
The price is about 3% below our fair value near $16. Analysts expect 12% revenue growth, which aligns with company guidance.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $656M in FY26
Breaks if: Dividend falls below $0.03 per share in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $3.775B in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story in the real estate sector. The current thesis state is weakened, with recent financial performance showing a decline compared to peers.
The market appears to be pricing in a neutral valuation, with expectations that are slightly below peers. There is a sense of fragility due to weak execution quality, but the valuation remains justified.
Management has set ambitious goals for growth, with some success in increasing revenues and Adjusted EBITDA. However, the recent earnings miss and the potential for further misses create moderate risk in the near term.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain growth targets and the broader real estate sector's performance. Key factors include potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like CBRE and JLL.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Recent financial performance fell to the 37th percentile. This is down from the robust 55th percentile. Leadership changes may impact strategic growth initiatives. The reason to own it has weakened.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NMRK's performance will depend on management execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.