Opendoor Technologies Inc (OPEN)

NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$1.98-1.98%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Opendoor Technologies Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue growth	At least 20%	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.17B
EPS	—	-0.115
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.83B
EPS	—	-0.636
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	7.28B
EPS	—	-0.355

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve Adjusted EBITDA breakeven by Q2 2026	Opendoor aims to break even on adjusted EBITDA by Q2 2026.	Broken	Adjusted EBITDA remains negative beyond Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve cash from operations toward positive territory	A primary condition in Opendoor Technologies Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Cash from operations >= $0 by end of 2026.	Broken	Cash from operations remains negative beyond FY26	Cash from operations: $-718M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations >= $0 by end of 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026-718,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase revenue by 25% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2026	Revenue is expected to grow 25% quarter-over-quarter from $720 million in Q1 2026.	Broken	Revenue growth falls below 20% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2026	Revenue: $883M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue >= $900 million in Q2 2026. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 4, 2026883,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9e2b1f31-dece-4622-822b-42feeb1e4594. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$-0.21 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.28B

$6.80B → $7.28B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.21	$6,801,229,777	5 / 7
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$6,801,199,980	4 / 9
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$6,801,199,980	4 / 9
2026-07-27	$-0.21	$6,801,229,777	5 / 7
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$6,801,199,980	4 / 9
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$6,884,608,330	4 / 9
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$6,884,608,330	4 / 9
2026-07-31	$-0.24	$6,884,638,129	5 / 7
2026-08-01	$-0.24	$6,884,638,129	5 / 7
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$6,884,608,330	4 / 9
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$6,884,608,330	4 / 9
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$6,884,608,330	4 / 9
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$6,884,638,129	4 / 7
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$6,884,638,129	4 / 7
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$7,044,617,638	4 / 7
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$7,044,617,638	4 / 7
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$7,044,617,638	4 / 7
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$7,044,617,638	4 / 7
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$7,044,617,638	4 / 7
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$7,274,791,070	4 / 9
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$7,044,617,638	4 / 7
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$7,044,617,638	4 / 7
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$7,044,617,638	4 / 7
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$7,044,617,638	4 / 7
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$7,044,617,638	4 / 7
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$7,044,617,638	4 / 7
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$7,274,879,798	4 / 7
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$7,274,879,798	4 / 7
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$7,457,024,242	4 / 7
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$7,457,024,242	4 / 7
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$7,457,024,242	4 / 7
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$7,457,024,242	4 / 7
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$7,457,024,242	4 / 7
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$7,457,024,242	4 / 7
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$7,457,024,242	4 / 7
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$7,457,024,242	4 / 7
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$7,457,024,242	4 / 7
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$7,457,024,242	4 / 7
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$7,457,024,242	4 / 7
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$7,457,024,242	4 / 7
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$7,457,024,242	4 / 7
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$7,457,024,242	4 / 7
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$7,457,024,242	4 / 7
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$7,457,024,242	4 / 7
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$7,457,024,242	4 / 7
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$7,457,024,242	4 / 7
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$7,457,024,242	4 / 7
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$7,457,024,242	4 / 7
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$7,457,024,242	4 / 7
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$7,404,613,131	4 / 7
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$7,404,613,131	4 / 7
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$7,404,613,131	4 / 7
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$7,404,613,131	4 / 7
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$7,404,613,131	4 / 7
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$7,404,613,131	4 / 7
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$7,404,613,131	4 / 7
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$7,404,613,131	4 / 7
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$7,307,626,020	4 / 7
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$7,307,626,020	4 / 7
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$7,307,626,020	4 / 7
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$7,307,626,020	4 / 7
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$7,307,626,020	4 / 7
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$7,307,626,020	4 / 7
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$7,307,626,020	4 / 7
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$7,307,626,020	4 / 7
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$7,307,626,020	4 / 7
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$7,307,626,020	4 / 7
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$7,307,626,020	4 / 7
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$7,307,626,020	4 / 7
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$7,307,626,020	4 / 7
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$7,307,626,020	4 / 7
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$7,307,626,020	4 / 7
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$7,307,626,020	4 / 7
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$7,307,626,020	4 / 7
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$7,307,626,020	4 / 7
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$7,307,626,020	4 / 7
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$7,307,626,020	4 / 7
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$7,307,626,020	4 / 7
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$7,307,626,020	4 / 7
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$7,307,626,020	4 / 7
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$7,307,626,020	4 / 7
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$7,283,239,946	4 / 7
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$7,283,239,946	4 / 7
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$7,283,239,946	4 / 7
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$7,283,239,946	4 / 7
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$7,283,239,946	4 / 7
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$7,283,239,946	4 / 7
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$7,283,239,946	4 / 7
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$7,283,239,946	4 / 7
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$7,283,239,946	4 / 7
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$7,283,239,946	4 / 7
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$7,283,239,946	4 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	5	2
2026-06-01	2	5	2
2026-07-01	2	5	2
2026-08-01	2	5	2
2026-09-01	2	5	2
2026-10-01	2	5	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve Adjusted EBITDA breakeven by Q2 2026Published status: Broken
Improve cash from operations toward positive territoryPublished status: Broken
Increase revenue by 25% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-78.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Opendoor Technologies Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk turnaround tied to the housing and real estate cycle, not a proven compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: the signal has improved from cautious to mixed, but the business remains loss-making and management execution is described as volatile.

What's priced into Opendoor Technologies Inc

OPEN is characterized as cheap versus peers, while the priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is negative, but the evidence does not specify exactly what the market assumes; the valuation case therefore remains uncertain, especially while the company is still losing money.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results remain weak and there is a history of a deep miss, including a miss in the latest quarter. Adjusted net loss narrowed from $49 million in 2026-Q1 to $30 million in 2026-Q2, while purchases, contribution margin, and resale speed improved; management still has not reached profitability. The next guidance update and the recent CEO transition are important execution risks.

What Opendoor Technologies Inc hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued progress toward adjusted net income positivity by the end of 2026, while scaling acquisitions without losing the gains in unit economics and resale speed. Fed rate cuts and continued strength from real estate bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; a guidance cut would weigh against the thesis.