CBRE Group (CBRE)

NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$133.08-1.78%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge CBRE Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.99 → 8.91 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Effective use of new debt to improve financial strength	Debt issuance improves capital allocation and financial strength.	Intact	Debt leads to higher financial risk or credit downgrade	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Core EPS grows to $7.7 in 2026	A primary condition in CBRE Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= $7.7 USD per share.	Broken	Core EPS falls below $7.0 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.69 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $7.7 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20260.69 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fe069313-ffa5-4d96-a89d-f8a49c88d618. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Revenue grew from $8.9 billion in 2025-Q1 to $11.2 billion in 2026-Q2, while Core EPS increased by 30% in 2026-Q2 compared to prior year. Management consistently emphasized core EPS growth and the trajectory is delivering with strong revenue and earnings expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
EBITDA from digital services grows with AI and data centers	A supporting condition in CBRE Group's published investment case. The stated target is EBITDA contribution grows steadily over next 4 quarters.	Intact	No growth or decline in digital services EBITDA next year	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows about 14% in next 12 months	A primary condition in CBRE Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= 13.6% YoY.	Improving	Revenue growth falls below 10% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.91

$8.88 → $8.91 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$51.86B

$51.83B → $51.86B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.88	$51,834,391,870	13 / 6
2026-07-25	$8.88	$51,834,391,870	13 / 6
2026-07-26	$8.87	$51,823,891,870	13 / 6
2026-07-27	$8.86	$51,020,287,296	8 / 5
2026-07-28	$8.87	$51,823,891,870	13 / 6
2026-07-29	$8.87	$51,823,891,870	13 / 6
2026-07-30	$8.88	$51,823,891,870	13 / 6
2026-07-31	$9.04	$52,154,963,530	12 / 6
2026-08-01	$9.04	$52,154,963,530	12 / 6
2026-08-02	$9.06	$52,237,500,870	12 / 6
2026-08-03	$9.06	$52,237,500,870	12 / 6
2026-08-04	$9.06	$52,237,500,870	12 / 6
2026-08-05	$9.06	$52,237,500,870	12 / 6
2026-08-06	$9.06	$52,237,500,870	12 / 6
2026-08-07	$8.95	$51,348,824,629	7 / 5
2026-08-08	$8.95	$51,348,824,629	7 / 5
2026-08-09	$9.07	$52,278,199,200	12 / 6
2026-08-10	$8.95	$51,348,824,629	7 / 5
2026-08-11	$8.95	$51,348,824,629	7 / 5
2026-08-12	$9.07	$52,278,199,200	12 / 6
2026-08-13	$8.95	$51,348,824,629	7 / 5
2026-08-14	$8.95	$51,348,824,629	7 / 5
2026-08-15	$8.95	$51,348,824,629	7 / 5
2026-08-16	$8.95	$51,348,824,629	7 / 5
2026-08-17	$8.95	$51,348,824,629	7 / 5
2026-08-18	$8.95	$51,348,824,629	7 / 5
2026-08-19	$8.95	$51,348,824,629	7 / 5
2026-08-20	$8.97	$51,892,689,629	8 / 5
2026-08-21	$8.97	$51,892,689,629	8 / 5
2026-08-22	$8.97	$51,892,689,629	8 / 5
2026-08-23	$8.97	$51,892,689,629	8 / 5
2026-08-24	$8.97	$51,892,689,629	8 / 5
2026-08-25	$8.97	$51,892,689,629	8 / 5
2026-08-26	$8.97	$51,892,689,629	8 / 5
2026-08-27	$8.97	$51,892,689,629	8 / 5
2026-08-28	$8.97	$51,892,689,629	8 / 5
2026-08-29	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-08-30	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-08-31	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-01	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-02	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-03	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-04	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-05	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-06	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-07	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-08	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-09	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-10	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-11	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-12	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-13	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-14	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-15	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-16	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-17	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-18	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-19	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-20	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-21	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-22	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-23	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-24	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-25	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-26	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-27	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-28	$8.99	$51,996,091,037	8 / 5
2026-09-29	$8.97	$51,941,424,370	8 / 5
2026-09-30	$8.97	$51,941,424,370	8 / 5
2026-10-01	$8.97	$51,941,424,370	8 / 5
2026-10-02	$8.97	$51,941,424,370	8 / 5
2026-10-03	$8.97	$51,941,424,370	8 / 5
2026-10-04	$8.97	$51,941,424,370	8 / 5
2026-10-05	$8.97	$51,941,424,370	8 / 5
2026-10-06	$8.97	$51,941,424,370	8 / 5
2026-10-07	$8.97	$51,941,424,370	8 / 5
2026-10-08	$8.97	$51,941,424,370	8 / 5
2026-10-09	$8.97	$51,941,424,370	8 / 5
2026-10-10	$8.97	$51,941,424,370	8 / 5
2026-10-11	$8.94	$51,941,424,370	7 / 5
2026-10-12	$8.94	$51,941,424,370	7 / 5
2026-10-13	$8.94	$51,941,424,370	7 / 5
2026-10-14	$8.94	$51,941,424,370	7 / 5
2026-10-15	$8.91	$51,864,437,526	7 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	12	1
2026-06-01	12	1
2026-07-01	12	1
2026-08-01	12	1
2026-09-01	12	1
2026-10-01	12	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Effective use of new debt to improve financial strengthQualitative condition
Core EPS grows to $7.7 in 2026Published status: Broken
EBITDA from digital services grows with AI and data centersQualitative condition
Revenue grows about 14% in next 12 monthsDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 22, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

CBRE Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a cautious approach to a cyclical business in the real estate sector. The current thesis state is watchful, given recent performance and the potential for both favorable and unfavorable developments.

What's priced into CBRE Group

The market currently prices CBRE as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that some weakness is already factored in. However, the valuation is justified by the company's fragile earnings quality and recent performance issues.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on increasing core earnings per share (EPS) growth and generating EBITDA from digital and power infrastructure services. Recent financial performance has been neutral, with a low probability of missing expectations, but the company has experienced a decline in momentum.

What CBRE Group hinges on

The thesis hinges on whether CBRE can maintain its earnings guidance without cuts and if macroeconomic factors, such as potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, will provide a supportive environment. Additionally, the performance of sector peers will be crucial for overall market sentiment.