Reading WELL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WELL free→Reading WELL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WELL free→NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is low, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 156% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If WELL cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $213.55. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $213 WELL trades at 12× p/s — 1.6× the 8× p/s peer median, and above its own 10× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $87 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $215–$249. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 146% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 32%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.03x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.60 → $0.65 (+8.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 76% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 10.2% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$100.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$214.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,261.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key for Welltower's performance. A drop signals weaker operations.
Confirms:Same store NOI growth reported below 12.25% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Same store NOI growth meets or exceeds 12.25% in Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WELL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026 , Welltower Inc. issued a press release that announced operating results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release refers to a supplemental information package that is available on the Company's website (www.welltower.com), free of charge. Copies of the press release and supplemental information package have been furnished as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, to this Current Report on Form 8-K (the "Repor…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$215.00 – $249.00 (median $240.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-05-22
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WELL Welltower | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | low |
VTR Ventas | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
OHI Omega Healthcare Investors | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
DOC Healthpeak Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AHR American Healthcare REIT | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing the Net Operating Income from Seniors Housing Operating properties.
Improve occupancy rates in Outpatient Medical properties.
Raise the guidance range for net income attributable to common stockholders.
Why it matters: Normalized FFO shows how much money Welltower makes. A miss means lower earnings.
Confirms:Normalized FFO reported below $1.55 per share for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Normalized FFO meets or exceeds $1.55 per share for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This would show strong performance in a key area for Welltower. It confirms management's goal to increase this metric.
Confirms:Q2 Seniors Housing Operating NOI growth exceeds 20% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 Seniors Housing Operating NOI growth is below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: An increase would indicate stronger financial health and management confidence. It aligns with growth goals.
Confirms:Management raises net income guidance in Q2 earnings call.
Disproves:Management maintains or lowers net income guidance in Q2 earnings call.
Other Events. Resale Prospectus Supplement On April 29, 2026, Welltower Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) a prospectus supplement to the base prospectus dated March 28, 2025 (the “Base Prospectus”) included in the Company’s automatic shelf registration statement on Form S-3 (File No. 333-286204) (the “Registration Statement”) to register the offer and resale by the selling stockholder identified therein of up to 138,740…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 6, 2026, Welltower OP LLC (the “Borrower”), a subsidiary of Welltower Inc. (the “Company”), entered into the Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of March 6, 2026 (the “Amended Credit Agreement”), with a consortium of 32 banks; KeyBank National Association, as administrative agent and L/C issuer; BofA Securities, Inc., JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Wells Fargo Securities LLC, as joint bookrunners for the Revolving A Facility and…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 10, 2026 , Welltower Inc. issued a press release that announced operating results for its fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. The press release refers to a supplemental information package that is available on the Company's website (www.welltower.com), free of charge. Copies of the press release and supplemental information package have been furnished as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, to this Current Report on Form 8-K (the…