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NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$83.88+0.50%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up profits. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 48% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple but looks cheaper over three years with expected earnings growth. If VTR cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Healthcare Facilities
- Market cap
- $41.13B
- Employees
- 542
- IPO date
- 1995-05-11
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $83.88. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$62.21consensus
Range $16.18 – $73.44
vs price: +35% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$112.11consensus
Range $35.78 – $169.95
vs price: -25% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $83 VTR trades at 7× p/s, below its 8× p/s peer median. Our $53 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $93–$110. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
6.9x
peer 7.9x · own history 5.6x
Premium
0.9x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
57%
our forecast 22%
Our fair value
$53.03
range $14.94 – $72.61
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 57% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 22%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
70th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 6.32x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated robust grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
88th pctl · Real Estate
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -33.3% / 30d, n=2for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.17 → $0.11 (-33.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 81% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 15.1% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in (~1.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$63.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$195.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,252.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for Q2 Attributable Net Income per share results
Why it matters: Earnings affect investor trust and future plans.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Net Income per share is above $0.60.
Disproves:Net Income per share is below $0.56.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VTR yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in the Real Estate sector.
- Watch for FOMC decisions that change interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for VTR and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like WELL, OHI, and DOC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting VTR and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If VTR raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-27), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If VTR cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-27), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like WELL, OHI, and DOC start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping VTR and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-152d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 15, 2026, Carey S. Roberts, Executive Vice President, General Counsel, Ethics & Compliance Officer and Corporate Secretary of Ventas, Inc. (“Ventas” or the “Company”) notified Ventas of her intention to resign from the Company effective June 26, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). Ms. Roberts intends to join Blackstone, Inc. as Senior Managing Dir…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.