Reading LTC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LTC free→Reading LTC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LTC free→NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the environment. Peer multiples imply a price about 13% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If LTC cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $36.86. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $37 the market pays 21× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 19× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $32 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 14% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 41%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.08x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.39 → $0.44 (+12.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 13% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 2 guided quarters · -50.9% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$78.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$185.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,318.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong growth in operating income shows better cost and revenue management. This can build confidence.
Confirms:Operating income growth is over 5% year over year in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Operating income growth is below 0% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LTC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
— Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, LTC Properties, Inc. announced the operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The text of the press release and the supplemental information package are furnished herewith as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, and are specifically incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Form 8-K and the related information in the exhibits attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LTC LTC Properties, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
WELL Welltower | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | low |
VTR Ventas | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
OHI Omega Healthcare Investors | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
DOC Healthpeak Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | fair | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
LTC is committed to maintaining its full year 2026 guidance for diluted core FAD per share and EPS.
LTC is focused on maintaining its full year 2026 EPS guidance despite recent challenges.
LTC aims to enhance operating income as a key financial metric.
Why it matters: Successful SHOP purchases will help growth. They will show the company's new plan is working.
Confirms:At least $250 million in SHOP acquisitions close as planned in Q2 2026.
Disproves:SHOP acquisitions fall short of $250 million or are delayed.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can recover from the recent earnings miss. Investors will look for signs of improvement.
Confirms:Q2 earnings exceed analyst expectations and show a return to revenue growth.
Disproves:Q2 earnings missed expectations again. This shows ongoing struggles.
Why it matters: More SHOP investments will show that the portfolio is changing and can grow.
Confirms:SHOP as a percentage of gross investments reaches 45% by year-end 2026.
Disproves:SHOP percentage remains below 40% by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the real estate sector picks up, it could help LTC's performance. This would signal a positive shift in market conditions.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is speeding up again. This shows better market conditions.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth keeps slowing down. This suggests ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Hitting or missing earnings goals will show how well LTC's growth plan is working.
Confirms:Q2 2026 diluted earnings per share meets or exceeds the guidance of $0.60 to $0.62.
Disproves:Q2 2026 diluted earnings per share falls below $0.60.
Why it matters: Maintaining EPS guidance can signal stability in earnings. It can reassure investors.
Confirms:Management maintains or raises EPS guidance in the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management lowers EPS guidance in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Sector headwinds can affect LTC's revenue growth. Understanding this can clarify future performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth speeds up to over 7% year over year in the next quarter.
Disproves:Revenue growth slows below 5% year over year in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping guidance shows that management believes in future growth. This can help investors feel better.
Confirms:Management confirms full year 2026 guidance during the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management lowers or withdraws full year 2026 guidance.
— Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 24, 2026, LTC Properties, Inc. announced the operating results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. The text of the press release and the supplemental information package are furnished herewith as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, and are specifically incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Form 8-K and the related information in the exhibits attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Se…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets On September 29, 2025, LTC Properties, Inc. (the “Company” or “LTC”) completed an acquisition, consisting of five seniors housing communities totaling 520 units, in Wisconsin from local developers. The aggregate purchase price paid at closing was $195 million funded by utilizing the Company’s line of credit, proceeds from loan payoffs, and proceeds from sales of common stock under the Company’s ATM program. SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requireme…