Reading NHI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NHI free→Reading NHI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If NHI reverses course and raises guidance next quarter, that's a sharp positive shift. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $70.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $71 NHI trades at 23× p/e — 1.6× the 14× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $58 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $80–$86. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 23% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.64x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.93 → $0.91 (-1.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 63% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 12.3% above current price.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$97.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$214.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,409.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how NHI is doing. They will also hint at what’s next.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NHI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 4, 2026 , National Health Investors, Inc. issued a press release announcing its earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$80.00 – $86.00 (median $81.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NHI National Health Investors, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | full | moderate |
WELL Welltower | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | low |
VTR Ventas | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
OHI Omega Healthcare Investors | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
DOC Healthpeak Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | fair | moderate |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Real Estate names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to provide a stable dividend per share of $0.92 to shareholders.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share remained at $0.92 in 2026-Q1, consistent with previous quarters. This stability indicates a commitment to maintaining shareholder returns, with no change in the dividend amount over the period.
“Dividend per share remained at $0.92.”
“Dividend per share was $0.92.”
“Dividend per share was $0.9.”
“Dividend per share was $0.9.”
Engage in strategic M&A activities to enhance company growth and market position.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company entered into a Purchase and Sale Agreement with NHC/OP, L.P. on April 21, 2026, indicating active engagement in M&A activities. This strategic move aims to enhance growth and market position, but financial impacts are yet to be observed.
“Entered into a Purchase and Sale Agreement with NHC/OP, L.P.”
Ensure strong cash flow from operations to support financial stability and growth.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operations was $53.44 million in 2026-Q1, down from $67.74 million in 2025-Q4, indicating a decline in operational cash flow. This suggests challenges in maintaining cash flow stability, requiring attention to operational efficiency.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the real estate sector.
Confirms:Real estate sector revenue growth is speeding up. It is getting close to over 7%.
Disproves:Revenue growth is under 5%. This shows the sector is still maturing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. CFO Transition On April 21, 2026, John L. Spaid notified the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of National Health Investors, Inc. (the “Company”) of his intention to retire from his position as Executive Vice President of Finance, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, effective as of July 1, 2026. Mr. Spaid’s retirement is not the result of any dis…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 21, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), National Health Investors, Inc. on behalf of itself and its affiliates identified in the Agreement (collectively, the “Company”) entered into a Purchase and Sale Agreement (the “Agreement”) with NHC/OP, L.P., a Delaware limited partnership (the “Purchaser”) and a wholly-owned subsidiary of National HealthCare Corporation (“NHC”), on behalf of itself and its affiliates identified in the Agreement, each of whi…
of this report is incorporated by reference into this
to the extent such information is responsive to the disclosure requirements of
“Cash from operations was $53.44 million.”
“Cash from operations was $67.74 million.”
“Cash from operations was $62.53 million.”