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National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$70.68-1.97%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If NHI reverses course and raises guidance next quarter, that's a sharp positive shift. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Healthcare Facilities
- Market cap
- $3.49B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-07-30
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $70.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$57.57consensus
Range $44.13 – $74.52
vs price: +23% above
Method agreement — · 4 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$83.94consensus
Range $69.04 – $113.31
vs price: -16% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $71 NHI trades at 23× p/e — 1.6× the 14× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $58 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $80–$86. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
23.5x
peer 14.5x · own history —
Premium
1.6x peer
Growth the price needs
23%
our forecast 16%
Our fair value
$57.61
range $43.93 – $74.32
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 23% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
79th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.64x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
43rd pctl · Real Estate
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish1 analysts, 63% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.93 → $0.91 (-1.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 63% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 12.3% above current price.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in (~1.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strongProvisional
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$97.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$214.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,409.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for NHI's next earnings report on August 6, 2026
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how NHI is doing. They will also hint at what’s next.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NHI yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in the Real Estate sector.
- Watch for FOMC decisions that change interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If NHI reverses course and raises guidance next quarter (came in LOWERED as of 2026-05-04), that's a sharp positive shift. The Street usually rewards a 'crisis averted' bounce-back.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for NHI and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like WELL, VTR, and OHI keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting NHI and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like WELL, VTR, and OHI start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping NHI and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If NHI misses again next quarter like this past one (a solid miss of -10% on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-041mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 4, 2026 , National Health Investors, Inc. issued a press release announcing its earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein.
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+3.8 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.