National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$70.19-1.72%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue near $241 million in 2026: FY26 revenue guidance mid $233.6M vs $240M target.
NHI keeps paying a stable dividend of $0.92 per share. The company plans more M&A to grow. Revenue is expected near $241 million in 2026. Cash flow needs to improve from recent declines.
Cash from operations fell 21% in early 2026. Earnings missed expectations recently. M&A activity has mixed signals. Dividend stability may be at risk if cash flow worsens.
The price is about 8% above our fair value near $72. Analysts expect 11% revenue growth, which we find justified but cautious.
Breaks if: cash from operations falls below $53 million
Breaks if: dividend per share falls below $0.92
Breaks if: no meaningful M&A activity for 2 quarters
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
NHI represents a real estate investment with a focus on senior housing. The current thesis reflects a mix of strong recent performance and ongoing risks, particularly in management execution and sector headwinds.
The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation, reflecting a low fragility tier due to weak execution quality. There is an expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully recognize the potential risks and rewards associated with NHI.
NHI's fundamentals are likely to be influenced by its ongoing efforts to expand its senior housing portfolio and maintain dividends. However, there is a moderate risk of missing earnings estimates, which could impact investor confidence.
The long-term thesis hinges on the company's ability to execute its management priorities effectively, particularly in acquisitions and maintaining dividends. Additionally, external factors like Federal Reserve rate changes and sector performance from peers will play a crucial role.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The reason to own NHI has diminished due to recent financial performance. It fell from the robust 80th to the 49th percentile of its sector. However, the company is expanding its senior housing portfolio through acquisitions. This strategic pivot may provide some support moving forward.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: revenue falls below $240 million
Overall, NHI's position is stable, but it faces challenges that could affect its trajectory. Not investment advice.