Reading CTRE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CTRE free→Reading CTRE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CTRE free→NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 29% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If CTRE reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising, that could lead to a credibility hit. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $37.03. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $37 the market pays 27× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 28× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $26 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $42–$47. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 41% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 45%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.23x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.38 → $0.39 (+3.8% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 92% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 16.5% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$106.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$240.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,341.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong net income indicates CareTrust is managing costs well. This is vital for stability and growth.
Confirms:Net income reported above $10 million for the quarter.
Disproves:Net income falls below $10 million for the quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CTRE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events On May 18, 2026, CareTrust REIT, Inc. (the “Company”) and its operating partnership, CTR Partnership, L.P., entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with each of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC on behalf of themselves and as representatives of the underwriters named in Schedule I thereto (collectively, the “Underwriters”) and as the forward sellers (together, in such capacity, the “Forward Sellers”) and each of Wells Fargo B…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$42.00 – $47.00 (median $45.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CTRE CareTrust REIT | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | full | moderate |
WELL Welltower | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | low |
VTR Ventas | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
OHI Omega Healthcare Investors | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
DOC Healthpeak Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | fair | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Continue efforts to maintain strong net income through operational efficiency.
Focus on enhancing cash from operations to support financial stability.
Why it matters: If they meet or exceed this guidance, it shows strong revenue growth and good performance.
Confirms:Normalized FFO guidance for Q2 2026 is at least $2.00 per share.
Disproves:Normalized FFO guidance falls below $1.90 per share.
Why it matters: Keeping 100% collection rates is key for stable revenue and growth.
Confirms:CareTrust reports it continues to collect 100% of rent and interest.
Disproves:Collection rates drop below 95% for any quarter.
Why it matters: Maintaining strong net income growth shows effective cost management. It indicates the company is on track with its financial goals.
Confirms:Net income growth reported above 15% year over year.
Disproves:Net income growth reported below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: An increase would signal strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Confirms:Announcement of a dividend increase above $0.39 per share.
Disproves:Dividend remains at $0.39 per share or decreases.
Why it matters: Strong investment activity shows growth and trust in the market.
Confirms:Total investment activity reaches or exceeds $1 billion by the end of Q2 2026.
Disproves:Investment activity remains below $800 million by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Improved cash from operations would support CareTrust's ability to invest and grow. This is key for long-term health.
Confirms:Cash from operations shows over 70% growth.
Disproves:Cash from operations stays under 66% growth.
Why it matters: Details on debt issuance will explain the company's money plans and financial health.
Confirms one read:They announced a successful debt issuance with good terms.
Confirms the other:No announcement or bad terms in the debt issuance.
Why it matters: A shift in the sector from maturing to growth could benefit CareTrust. It would indicate a better environment for revenue growth.
Confirms one read:The sector shows revenue growth is speeding up again.
Confirms the other:The sector is still declining. This shows it is in a mature phase.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth shows CareTrust is doing better. This could make investors more confident.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 7% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains below 7% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, CareTrust REIT, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilit…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 17, 2026, CareTrust REIT, Inc. (the “Company”) and CTR Partnership, L.P. (the “Operating Partnership”) entered into a new equity distribution agreement (the “Equity Distribution Agreement”) with (i) BMO Capital Markets Corp., BofA Securities, Inc., Huntington Securities, Inc., Jeffries LLC, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., M&T Securities, Inc., Raymond James & Associates, Inc., RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Regions S…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 12, 2026, CareTrust REIT, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise…