CareTrust REIT (CTRE)

NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$36.620.00%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge CareTrust REIT’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.68 → 1.67 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	142.99M
EPS	—	0.413
FY 2026 · Annual
Cash rental revenue	$442M–$450M	—
Cash rental revenue (midpoint)	$478M	—
Revenue	—	514.66M
EPS	—	1.555
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	627.06M
EPS	—	1.67

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Stabilize or improve cash from operations near $90 million quarterly	A supporting condition in CareTrust REIT's published investment case. The stated target is >= $90 million per quarter.	Intact	Cash from operations falls below $90 million per quarter	Cash from operations: $134.749M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $90 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026134,749,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain or grow net income above $80 million quarterly	Profit remains solid, with net income rising from $68.5M to $80.2M.	Intact	Net income falls below $80 million per quarter	Net income: $88.996M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $80 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202688,996,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: cb4cc732-a2f9-468d-93ad-e6931c18fc36. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth to at least $442M in 2026	A primary condition in CareTrust REIT's published investment case. The stated target is >= $442 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $442 million in FY26	Revenue: $161.348M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $442 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026161,348,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: cb4cc732-a2f9-468d-93ad-e6931c18fc36. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 quarters from 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q2. Revenue increased from $112.5 million in 2025-Q2 to $161.3 million in 2026-Q2, and net income rose from $68.5 million to $89.0 million over the same period. Guidance for net income per share rose from $1.45-$1.50 in 2025-Q4 to $1.53-$1.56 in 2026-Q2, and Normalized FFO per share guidance increased accordingly. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth in revenue and net income. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain valuation premium with PE near 28	A supporting condition in CareTrust REIT's published investment case. The stated target is PE around 28.	Broken	PE falls below 20	P/E (TTM): 21.80x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 202621.7976 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: CTRE:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.67

Unavailable → $1.67 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.69B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$690,234,010	4 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$690,234,010	4 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$690,234,010	4 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$690,234,010	4 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$690,234,010	4 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$690,234,010	4 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$690,234,010	4 / 5
2026-07-31	$1.61	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-01	$1.61	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$690,234,010	4 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$690,234,010	4 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$690,234,010	4 / 5
2026-08-05	$1.61	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-06	$1.61	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-07	$1.61	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$690,234,010	4 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$690,234,010	4 / 5
2026-08-10	$1.61	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$709,214,010	4 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$709,214,010	4 / 5
2026-08-13	$1.61	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-14	$1.61	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-15	$1.61	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-16	$1.61	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-17	$1.61	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-18	$1.61	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-19	$1.61	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-20	$1.64	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-21	$1.64	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-22	$1.64	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-23	$1.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-24	$1.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-25	$1.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-26	$1.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-27	$1.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-28	$1.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-29	$1.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-30	$1.66	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-31	$1.66	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-01	$1.66	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-02	$1.66	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-03	$1.67	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-04	$1.67	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-05	$1.68	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-06	$1.68	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-07	$1.68	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-08	$1.68	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-09	$1.68	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-10	$1.68	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-11	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-12	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-13	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-14	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-15	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-16	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-17	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-18	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-19	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-20	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-21	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-22	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-23	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-24	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-25	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-26	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-27	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-28	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-29	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-30	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-01	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-02	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-03	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-04	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-05	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-06	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 2
2026-10-07	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 2
2026-10-08	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-09	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-10	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-11	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-12	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-13	$1.68	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-14	$1.68	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-15	$1.68	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-16	$1.68	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-17	$1.68	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-18	$1.68	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-19	$1.68	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-20	$1.68	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-21	$1.68	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-22	$1.67	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-23	$1.67	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-24	$1.67	Unavailable	5 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	11	1
2026-06-01	12	1
2026-07-01	13	1
2026-08-01	13	1
2026-09-01	12	1
2026-10-01	13	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 19 · prior Sep 1

$44.00 → $43.00-2.3%

WedbushOct 13

$44.00New observation · no comparable prior

Raymond JamesOct 5 · prior Jun 16

$43.00 → $42.00-2.3%

BMO CapitalOct 5 · prior Jun 15

$47.00 → $45.00-4.3%

$0$25.85$51.70

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Stabilize or improve cash from operations near $90 million quarterlyCash from operations: $134.749M
Maintain or grow net income above $80 million quarterlyNet income: $88.996M
Revenue growth to at least $442M in 2026Revenue: $161.348M
Maintain valuation premium with PE near 28Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

CareTrust REIT outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CTRE is a healthcare real estate growth business, with external acquisitions as an important growth engine. The long-term thesis is intact, but execution quality is fragile and confidence is medium.

What's priced into CareTrust REIT

The valuation model shows CTRE at a 1.52 premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative at -0.03. The evidence labels pricing as justified, with low fragility, but model confidence is low, so the valuation read is uncertain.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent results show strong growth: revenue and net income increased over the cited year, guidance rose, and the dividend payout ratio stayed near management’s stated level. Near term, execution remains a concern because the evidence notes recent misses in a high-miss-rate industry; a guidance cut after the recent increase would also damage credibility.

What CareTrust REIT hinges on

The multi-year view depends partly on whether acquisitions, including the announced UK care home deal, support growth without weakening execution. Near-term sector support could improve if interest rates fall or sector peers continue to report strong results and raise guidance.