Reading DOC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DOC free→Reading DOC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DOC free→NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with DOC trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 17% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $20.41. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $20, DOC's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 79× p/e (4.9× the 16× p/e peer median, and 1.1× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~-17% near-term growth vs our ~9% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $25 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $17–$24. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 17% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 5.55x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated robust grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.03. 0 raised, 3 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 3 maintained. 45% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.0% above current price.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$95.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$199.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,708.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Changes in same-store cash NOI growth show how Healthpeak's properties are doing. This affects overall portfolio performance.
Confirms one read:Same-store cash NOI growth exceeds 1.0% for Q2 2026.
Confirms the other:Same-store cash NOI growth falls below -1.0% for Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DOC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Healthpeak Properties, Inc., a Maryland corporation (“Healthpeak”), issued a press release setting forth its financial results for the first quarter and three months ended March 31, 2026. The press release refers to the Discussion and Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures, which is available in the Investor Relations section of Healthpeak’s website, free of charge, at http://ir.healthpeak.com/quarterly-results . The press…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$17.00 – $24.00 (median $20.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DOC Healthpeak Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | fair | moderate |
WELL Welltower | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | low |
VTR Ventas | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
OHI Omega Healthcare Investors | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
AHR American Healthcare REIT | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Healthpeak continues to reaffirm its 2026 NOI growth guidance in the range of -1.0% to 1.0%.
Healthpeak has updated its 2026 EPS guidance to a range of $0.46 to $0.50.
Healthpeak reaffirms its 2026 FFO guidance in the range of $1.68 to $1.72 per share.
Why it matters: Reaffirming FFO guidance shows good financial health and steady operations. It comforts investors.
Confirms:Management confirms FFO guidance for 2026 remains on track during the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management revises FFO guidance downward in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Janus Living's new acquisitions could boost Healthpeak's earnings. They may also support its investment plan.
Confirms:Janus Living has new acquisitions. They are worth more than $400 million.
Disproves:Janus Living fails to announce any new acquisitions in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A rebound in sector revenue growth could boost Healthpeak's performance and outlook.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth shows signs of speeding up toward past highs.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth keeps slowing down.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks show management's confidence in the stock. They also show a commitment to shareholders.
Confirms:Healthpeak announces more share buybacks over $100 million.
Disproves:Healthpeak stops its share buyback program or says there will be no more buybacks.
Why it matters: Changes in EPS guidance can show shifts in profit expectations. This impacts value.
Confirms one read:Management raises 2026 EPS guidance in the next earnings call.
Confirms the other:Management lowers 2026 EPS guidance in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: This guidance shows confidence in steady revenue. It builds trust with investors.
Confirms:Management will confirm 2026 NOI growth guidance at the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management lowers the 2026 NOI growth guidance in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: An update on earnings guidance will show how management views future performance. It can signal confidence or concern about growth.
Confirms:Management raises 2026 earnings guidance above the current range of $0.46 - $0.50 per share.
Disproves:Management cuts 2026 earnings guidance. It is now below the current range.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Amendments to Credit Agreements and Incremental Delayed Draw Term Loan On March 23, 2026 (the “ Closing Date ”), concurrently with the completion of Janus Living, Inc.’s (“ Janus Living ”) registered underwritten initial public offering (the “ Janus IPO ”), Healthpeak Properties, Inc., a Maryland corporation (“ Healthpeak ”), Healthpeak OP, LLC, a Maryland limited liability company (“ Healthpeak OP ”), DOC DR Holdco, LLC, a Maryland limited liability…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information included in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 2, 2026, Healthpeak Properties, Inc., a Maryland corporation (“Healthpeak”), issued a press release setting forth its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The press release refers to the Discussion and Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures, which is available in the Investor Relations section of Healthpeak’s website, free of charge, at http://ir.healthpeak.com/quarterly-results . The press…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 23, 2025, Healthpeak Properties, Inc., a Maryland corporation (“Healthpeak”), issued a press release setting forth its financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025. The press release refers to the Discussion and Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures, which is available in the Investor Relations section of Healthpeak’s website, free of charge, at http://ir.healthpeak.com/quarterly-results . The press…