Welltower (WELL)

NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$234.85+0.09%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Welltower’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.25 → 3.25 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow per share	The company has strong cash flow and a stable management team.	Intact	FCF per share falls below $4.5 in FY2025	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income guidance per diluted share	It raised net income guidance to $3.38 per share.	Broken	EPS guidance falls below $3.0 per share in FY2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management revised 2026 net income guidance downward slightly from $3.24-$3.38 to $3.11-$3.19 per diluted share but increased normalized FFO guidance from $6.21-$6.35 to $6.36-$6.44 per diluted share. The trajectory shows mixed adjustments but overall reflects management's focus on raising normalized FFO guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Outpatient Medical occupancy rate	Occupancy in outpatient medical properties improved to 96.9%.	Intact	Occupancy falls below 95% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Seniors Housing Operating NOI growth	Welltower grows seniors housing income 22% yearly.	Intact	Seniors Housing NOI growth falls below 15% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Same store NOI growth in the Seniors Housing Operating portfolio was 20.4% in 2025-Q4, 22.1% in 2026-Q1, and 20.5% in 2026-Q2, driven by occupancy and revenue per occupied room increases. The trajectory is delivering consistent strong growth aligned with management's stated focus. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.25

Unavailable → $3.25 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$16.28B

$16.22B → $16.28B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$16,217,611,740	3 / 6
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$16,217,611,740	3 / 6
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$16,217,611,740	3 / 6
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$16,217,611,740	3 / 6
2026-07-28	$3.25	$15,855,328,422	6 / 5
2026-07-29	$3.25	$15,872,899,851	6 / 5
2026-07-30	$3.25	$15,936,213,394	6 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$16,507,685,070	3 / 7
2026-08-01	$3.25	$15,936,213,394	6 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$16,507,685,070	2 / 7
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$16,507,685,070	2 / 7
2026-08-04	$3.20	$15,915,913,394	5 / 6
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$16,660,984,489	2 / 7
2026-08-06	$3.20	$15,915,913,394	5 / 6
2026-08-08	$3.20	$15,915,913,394	5 / 6
2026-08-09	$3.20	$15,915,913,394	5 / 6
2026-08-10	$3.20	$15,915,913,394	5 / 6
2026-08-12	$3.20	$15,915,913,394	5 / 6
2026-08-13	$3.20	$15,915,913,394	5 / 6
2026-08-14	$3.20	$15,915,913,394	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$3.20	$15,915,913,394	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$3.20	$15,915,913,394	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$3.20	$15,915,913,394	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$3.20	$15,915,913,394	6 / 6
2026-08-19	$3.20	$15,915,913,394	6 / 6
2026-08-20	$3.17	$16,024,505,430	6 / 6
2026-08-21	$3.17	$16,024,505,430	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$3.16	$16,024,505,430	7 / 6
2026-08-23	$3.16	$16,024,505,430	7 / 6
2026-08-24	$3.16	$16,024,505,430	7 / 6
2026-08-25	$3.17	$16,129,656,680	7 / 6
2026-08-26	$3.17	$16,129,656,680	7 / 6
2026-08-27	$3.17	$16,129,656,680	7 / 6
2026-08-28	$3.17	$16,129,656,680	7 / 6
2026-08-29	$3.17	$16,129,656,680	7 / 6
2026-08-30	$3.17	$16,129,656,680	7 / 6
2026-08-31	$3.17	$16,129,656,680	7 / 6
2026-09-01	$3.17	$16,129,656,680	7 / 6
2026-09-02	$3.17	$16,129,656,680	7 / 6
2026-09-03	$3.25	$16,174,399,099	6 / 6
2026-09-04	$3.25	$16,174,426,987	7 / 6
2026-09-05	$3.25	$16,174,426,987	7 / 6
2026-09-06	$3.25	$16,174,426,987	7 / 6
2026-09-07	$3.25	$16,174,426,987	7 / 6
2026-09-08	$3.25	$16,174,426,987	7 / 6
2026-09-09	$3.25	$16,174,426,987	7 / 6
2026-09-10	$3.25	$16,174,426,987	7 / 6
2026-09-11	$3.25	$16,174,426,987	7 / 6
2026-09-12	$3.25	$16,174,426,987	7 / 6
2026-09-13	$3.25	$16,174,426,987	7 / 6
2026-09-14	$3.25	$16,174,426,987	7 / 6
2026-09-15	$3.25	$16,174,426,987	7 / 6
2026-09-16	$3.25	$16,174,426,987	7 / 6
2026-09-17	$3.25	$16,174,426,987	7 / 6
2026-09-18	$3.25	$16,174,426,987	7 / 6
2026-09-19	$3.25	$16,174,426,987	7 / 6
2026-09-20	$3.25	$16,174,399,099	6 / 6
2026-09-21	$3.25	$16,174,399,099	6 / 6
2026-09-22	$3.25	$16,174,399,099	6 / 6
2026-09-23	$3.25	$16,181,480,179	6 / 5
2026-09-24	$3.25	$16,181,480,179	6 / 5
2026-09-25	$3.25	$16,181,480,179	6 / 5
2026-09-26	$3.25	$16,181,480,179	6 / 5
2026-09-27	$3.25	$16,181,480,179	6 / 5
2026-09-28	$3.25	$16,181,480,179	6 / 5
2026-09-29	$3.25	$16,181,480,179	6 / 5
2026-09-30	$3.25	$16,181,480,179	6 / 5
2026-10-01	$3.25	$16,181,480,179	6 / 5
2026-10-02	$3.25	$16,205,157,334	6 / 5
2026-10-03	$3.25	$16,203,179,149	6 / 5
2026-10-04	$3.25	$16,203,179,149	6 / 5
2026-10-05	$3.25	$16,203,179,149	6 / 5
2026-10-06	$3.25	$16,203,157,334	6 / 5
2026-10-07	$3.25	$16,203,157,334	6 / 5
2026-10-08	$3.25	$16,278,757,726	6 / 5
2026-10-09	$3.25	$16,278,757,726	6 / 5
2026-10-10	$3.25	$16,278,757,726	6 / 5
2026-10-11	$3.25	$16,278,757,726	6 / 5
2026-10-12	$3.25	$16,278,757,726	6 / 5
2026-10-13	$3.25	$16,278,757,726	6 / 5
2026-10-14	$3.25	$16,278,757,726	6 / 5
2026-10-15	$3.25	$16,278,757,726	6 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	16	4	1
2026-06-01	17	4	1
2026-07-01	17	4	1
2026-08-01	17	5	1
2026-09-01	18	5	0
2026-10-01	18	4	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 13 · prior Aug 31

$259.00 → $246.00-5.0%

Evercore ISISep 21 · prior Jul 30

$260.00 → $256.00-1.5%

$0$143.00$286.00

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow per shareDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Net income guidance per diluted sharePublished status: Broken
Outpatient Medical occupancy rateDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Seniors Housing Operating NOI growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-12.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Welltower outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a long-term thesis on a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on seniors housing. The current state reflects mixed performance and elevated valuation, which may limit upside unless management can improve execution and guidance.

What's priced into Welltower

The market seems to have priced in a high valuation, reflecting expectations of strong performance despite recent mixed results. The valuation is expensive compared to peers, indicating that investors may be cautious about future growth.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has shown a commitment to increasing net income and normalized funds from operations (FFO), but recent adjustments have been mixed. The company has maintained a strong dividend growth, which supports its cash flow outlook, though overall performance has been below industry peers.

What Welltower hinges on

Key factors include management's ability to raise guidance in upcoming quarters, potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and performance of sector peers. Positive shifts in these areas could improve sentiment and support the business.