Reading IRM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IRM free→Reading IRM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IRM free→NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate, though the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 43% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $128.15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $126, IRM's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 57× p/e (3.5× the 16× p/e peer median, and 1.1× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~44% near-term growth vs our ~22% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $88 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $127–$140. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 44% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 22%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 5.20x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated robust grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.56 → $0.56 (+0.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 3 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 91% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$143.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$300.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,515.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Confirming the dividend payment shows strong cash flow and care for shareholders.
Confirms:Dividend payment confirmed at $0.864 per share on July 3.
Disproves:Dividend payment not confirmed. This shows possible cash flow problems.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase AFFO per share guidance
Q3 AFFO beat indicates strong financial performance.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Iron Mountain Incorporated, or the Company, issued an earnings press release and supplemental financial information for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. In addition, the Company will be using a slide presentation during its earnings conference call. Copies of the earnings press release, slide presentation and supplemental financial information are furnished as Exhibits 99.1, 99.2 and 99.3, respectively, hereto and posted on th…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$127.00 – $140.00 (median $130.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-01
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Other Specialized REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
IRM Iron Mountain | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LAMR Lamar Advertising Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | expensive | low |
GLPI Gaming and Leisure Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | full | low |
OUT Outfront Media | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
EPR EPR Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | full | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Iron Mountain has raised its full-year revenue guidance for 2026.
Iron Mountain has increased its AFFO per share guidance for 2026.
Iron Mountain continues to maintain its dividend payments to shareholders.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance shows strong growth momentum. This can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Management raises revenue guidance for the full year. It is now higher than estimates.
Disproves:Management keeps revenue guidance the same or lowers it.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is performing and growing.
Confirms one read:Q2 2026 earnings show revenue growth above 15% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 2026 earnings show revenue growth below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Exceeding this guidance would show strong momentum in Iron Mountain's growth strategy.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue was over $1.965 billion. This shows strong operational performance.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue was under $1.965 billion. This suggests weaker growth than expected.
Why it matters: An increase in AFFO per share guidance shows strong cash flow and efficiency.
Confirms:Management raises AFFO per share guidance to over $5.86.
Disproves:Management keeps AFFO per share guidance below $5.69.
Why it matters: A rebound in revenue growth could signal a turnaround in the real estate sector.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 3% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is below 0%. This shows ongoing weakness.
Why it matters: An increase means better cash flow and more efficient operations.
Confirms:AFFO per share was over $1.43. This shows strong financial health.
Disproves:AFFO per share reported below $1.43, suggesting cash flow issues.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company continues to grow after the recent earnings beat.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) exceeds $0.70, indicating strong performance.
Confirms the other:EPS is under $0.50. This shows weakness in operations.
Why it matters: Exceeding this number would confirm strong demand and growth in the data center segment.
Confirms:Data center leasing was over 32 megawatts. This shows strong market demand.
Disproves:Data center leasing was under 32 megawatts. This suggests weaker demand.
Debut in Asia expands market presence and growth potential.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 12, 2026, Iron Mountain Incorporated, or the Company, issued an earnings press release and supplemental financial information for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. In addition, the Company will be using a slide presentation during its earnings conference call. Copies of the earnings press release, slide presentation and supplemental financial information are furnished as Exhibits 99.1, 99.2 and 99.3, respectively, hereto a…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On October 21, 2025, the board of directors (the “Board”) of the Company elected Christie Kelly, age 64, to serve as a director of the Company effective immediately. There are no arrangements or understandings between Ms. Kelly and any other persons pursuant to which she was elected as a director, and Ms. Kelly has no direct or indirect material int…