Reading LAMR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LAMR free→Reading LAMR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LAMR free→NASDAQReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 39% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $150.99. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $154 the market pays 29× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 29× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $112 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $145–$160. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 38% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.61x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.54 → $1.58 (+2.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$73.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$200.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,005.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows the company cares about giving cash to shareholders. It shows financial health.
Confirms:The company pays the declared dividend of $1.60 per share on June 30, 2026.
Disproves:The company stops or lowers the dividend payment.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LAMR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. At the 2026 Annual Meeting (as defined below) of Lamar Advertising Company (the “Company”), the Company’s stockholders approved an amendment and restatement of the Company’s 1996 Equity Incentive Plan to increase the number of shares of Class A Common Stock of the Company available for issuance under the plan by 2,000,000 shares from 17,500,000 to…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$145.00 – $160.00 (median $150.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-08
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Other Specialized REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LAMR Lamar Advertising Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | low |
IRM Iron Mountain | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GLPI Gaming and Leisure Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | full | low |
OUT Outfront Media | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
EPR EPR Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | full | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to distribute a quarterly cash dividend of $1.60 per share to stockholders.
Extend the stock and debt repurchase programs through September 30, 2027.
Focus on increasing cash generated from operating activities to support financial stability.
Aim to stabilize net income through operational efficiencies and revenue growth.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how revenue grows and how the company performs. This can affect investor feelings.
Confirms one read:Earnings results show revenue growth over 5% compared to last year.
Confirms the other:Earnings results show revenue growth under 2% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows strong cash flow. It shows commitment to shareholders.
Confirms:The company declares the dividend of $1.60 per share for Q3.
Disproves:The company cuts the dividend below $1.60 per share.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is key to maintaining the dividend and supporting growth.
Confirms:Cash from operations goes up by over 10% each quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operations goes down or stays the same each quarter.
Why it matters: Stable net income is important for investor trust. It shows how well the company operates.
Confirms one read:Net income for Q2 2026 shows a year-over-year increase compared to Q2 2025.
Confirms the other:Net income for Q2 2026 goes down compared to last year.
Why it matters: Growth in cash from operations is important. It helps fund the dividend and other needs.
Confirms:Cash from operations is over $147.39M in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities drops below $147.39M in Q2.
Why it matters: A stock buyback program shows management believes in the company's value. It can help share prices.
Confirms:The company announces large buybacks in the stock repurchase program.
Disproves:The company stops or greatly cuts the stock repurchase program.
Why it matters: Updates on the stock buyback can show management's trust in the company's value and cash flow.
Confirms:Management says they finished a big part of the $250 million stock buyback.
Disproves:No updates or a stop in the buyback suggests possible cash flow worries.
Why it matters: Stable net income is important for long-term growth and investor trust. It shows the company's health.
Confirms:Net income is higher than in Q1. This shows better operational efficiency.
Disproves:Net income keeps going down or stays the same, raising worries about making money.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026 , Lamar Advertising Company announced via press release its results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of Lamar’s press release is hereby furnished to the Commission and incorporated by reference herein as Exhibit 99.1.
Other Events. On May 14, 2026, Lamar Advertising Company (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.60 per share payable on June 30, 2026 to holders of record of the Company’s Class A common stock and Class B common stock on June 16, 2026. A copy of the press release is filed herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 20, 2026 , Lamar Advertising Company announced via press release its results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of Lamar’s press release is hereby furnished to the Commission and incorporated by reference herein as Exhibit 99.1.
Other Events. On February 26, 2026, Lamar Advertising Company (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.60 per share payable on March 31, 2026, to holders of record of the Company’s Class A common stock and Class B common stock on March 16, 2026. Also on February 26, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company authorized the extension of the Company’s existing (i) stock repurchase program, which has remaining availab…