Reading OUT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OUT free→Reading OUT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OUT free→NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with the company trading above typical levels compared to its peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If OUT cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $31.26. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $31 the market pays 27× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 28× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $30 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $35–$38. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 6% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.87x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.30 → $0.37 (+25.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$101.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$231.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,124.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This offering is key for refinancing existing debt and managing cash flow. Successful completion could strengthen the balance sheet.
Confirms:The offering closes on June 12, 2026, with all proceeds allocated as planned.
Disproves:The offering fails to close or proceeds are not used as intended.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OUT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 12, 2026, OUTFRONT Media Inc. (the “Company”), along with its wholly-owned subsidiaries, Outfront Media Capital LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Finance LLC”), and Outfront Media Capital Corporation, a Delaware corporation (together with Finance LLC, the “Issuers”), and the other guarantors party thereto (the “Guarantors”), entered into an indenture (the “Indenture”) with Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, as trustee (the “Trus…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$35.00 – $38.00 (median $37.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-12
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Other Specialized REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OUT Outfront Media | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
IRM Iron Mountain | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LAMR Lamar Advertising Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | low |
GLPI Gaming and Leisure Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | full | low |
EPR EPR Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to provide a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share to shareholders.
Focus on increasing cash flow from operating activities to support business operations.
Aim to improve operating income through strategic initiatives and cost management.
Why it matters: The FOMC's choices can affect the economy and ad budgets. Changes might impact OUTFRONT's revenue.
Confirms one read:Ad demand goes up in the weeks after the FOMC meeting.
Confirms the other:Ad demand goes down or stays the same after the FOMC meeting.
Why it matters: Operating income helps us see how much money the company makes. A rise shows better cost control.
Confirms:Q2 operating income goes up compared to last year.
Disproves:Q2 operating income goes down compared to last year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow helps the company run smoothly. It shows good cash management.
Confirms:Q2 cash from operations is over $80M.
Disproves:Q2 cash from operating activities is below $70M.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the real estate sector picks up, it could benefit Outfront Media's performance.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth speeds up again, going above 7%.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth continues to slow below 7%.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial stability. It also shows commitment to shareholders. Missing a payment could raise worries.
Confirms:The dividend of $0.30 per share is paid as scheduled.
Disproves:The company suspends or cuts the dividend payment.
Why it matters: Improved cash flow shows better financial health. It supports the ability to pay dividends and invest.
Confirms:Cash from operating activities goes up from the last quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities goes down from the last quarter.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows market demand and success. It can impact stock performance.
Confirms one read:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 revenue growth is below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Growing revenue is key for keeping momentum. It also helps boost investor confidence. A slowdown may cause worries.
Confirms one read:Q2 2026 revenue shows an increase from Q1 2026 results of $429.6 million.
Confirms the other:Q2 2026 revenue declines or grows less than 5% compared to Q1 2026.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information contained in
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As described in
Other Events. On June 3, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the pricing of $500.0 million aggregate principal amount of 6.000% Senior Notes due 2034. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
This information shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, or incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.