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Gladstone Land Corp. (LAND)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$8.78-0.79%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 42% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while earnings quality is fragile. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from LAND and the performance of sector bellwethers like EQIX, AMT, and DLR. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Specialty
- Market cap
- $386.50M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2013-03-27
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.78. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$15.00consensus
Range $9.03 – $18.40
vs price: -41% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$12.42consensus
Range $6.65 – $18.57
vs price: -29% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $8.85 LAND trades at 4× p/s, below its 6× p/s peer median. Our $12 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
4.1x
peer 5.6x · own history —
Premium
0.7x peer
Growth the price needs
-27%
our forecast 7%
Our fair value
$12.18
range $7.66 – $16.85
WhyEarnings too small for P/E
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensive12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 27% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
73rd pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -2.01x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -23.0% / 30d, n=3for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.23 → $-0.28 (-23.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 17% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in (~1.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weakProvisional
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$113.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$299.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,877.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'inexpensive'.
The valuation dimension changed. It rose from "fair" to "inexpensive." Risk remained moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for revenue growth re-accelerating in the sector
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could help Gladstone Land improve its financials. This is key for the real estate sector.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Sector revenue growth shows an increase back toward 5% or higher.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth continues to decline or stays below 5%.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LAND yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in the Real Estate sector.
- Watch for FOMC decisions that change interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for LAND and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like EQIX, AMT, and DLR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting LAND and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If LAND raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-11), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If LAND cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-11), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like EQIX, AMT, and DLR start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping LAND and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0215d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 1, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Gladstone Land Corporation (the “Company”) elected George “Chip” Stelljes, III to the Board, effective June 1, 2026. Mr. Stelljes will join the 2028 class of Directors for the Company as an independent director, with a term expiring at the Company’s 2028 annual meeting of stockholders. The Bo…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.