Reading FPI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FPI free→Reading FPI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FPI free→NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with FPI trading below typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. If FPI reverses course and raises guidance next quarter, that could signal a sharp positive shift. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.79. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.76 FPI trades at 14× p/e, below its 14× p/e peer median. Our $10 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 6% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.64x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.03 → $0.03 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$94.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$268.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,455.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Big events can change how much people spend. This can affect revenue growth.
Confirms one read:After June 17, good consumer spending data shows growth over 5%.
Confirms the other:Post-June 17, consumer spending data shows growth below 5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FPI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Farmland Partners Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial position as of March 31, 2026, results of operations for the three months ended March 31, 2026 and other related information. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The Company intends to make certain supplemental information available on its websi…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Other Specialized REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FPI Farmland Partners, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | fair | moderate |
IRM Iron Mountain | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LAMR Lamar Advertising Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | low |
GLPI Gaming and Leisure Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | full | low |
OUT Outfront Media | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on disciplined capital management to deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Despite the focus on disciplined capital management, revenue decreased from $20.7M in 2025-Q4 to $10.1M in 2026-Q1, and net income fell from $21.4M to $0.64M. This indicates limited progress in delivering risk-adjusted returns.
“We believe we are well positioned to continue delivering attractive risk-adjusted total returns through disciplined capital management.”
“The Company increased the bottom and top end of 2025 AFFO guidance range to $0.32 to $0.36 from $0.28 to $0.34.”
Continue to maintain high-quality assets to leverage favorable long-term agricultural trends.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The focus on high-quality assets is intended to leverage agricultural trends, but revenue decreased from $20.7M in 2025-Q4 to $10.1M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in leveraging these trends.
“We believe we are well positioned to continue delivering attractive risk-adjusted total returns through disciplined capital management, high-quality assets, and favorable long-term agricultural trend…”
Guidance for the year was reduced due to non-cash allowances for potential loan losses under the FPI loan program.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The reduction in guidance reflects concerns over potential loan losses, with revenue dropping from $20.7M in 2025-Q4 to $10.1M in 2026-Q1, indicating a challenging financial environment.
“We reduced our guidance for the year due to non-cash allowances for potential loan losses under the FPI loan program.”
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates can change costs for real estate and investment choices.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises rates, leading to a slowdown in property investments.
Confirms the other:FOMC holds rates steady or lowers them, boosting investment sentiment.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the sector's maturity phase.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 18, 2026, Farmland Partners Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial position as of December 31, 2025, results of operations for the year ended December 31, 2025 and other related information. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The Company intends to make certain supplemental information available on its webs…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 29, 2025, Farmland Partners Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial position as of September 30, 2025, results of operations for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025 and other related information. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The Company intends to make certain supplemental information ava…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 23, 2025, Farmland Partners Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial position as of June 30, 2025, results of operations for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025 and other related information. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The Company intends to make certain supplemental information available on its…