Lamar Advertising Company (LAMR)

NASDAQReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$155.02-1.58%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Lamar Advertising Company’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	632.21M
EPS	—	1.681
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.4B
EPS	—	5.907
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.49B
EPS	—	6.279

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Extend stock and debt repurchase programs through Sept 2027	The company extends its stock and debt buyback programs.	Intact	repurchase programs are not extended or are reduced	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Management extended stock repurchase program with $250 million available and extended debt repurchase program through September 2027. No repurchases under debt program reported yet, so progress is limited but program extension is confirmed. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Increase cash from operating activities to support stability	Profit and cash flow remain stable enough to support dividends.	Improving	cash from operations remains below $150 million	Cash from operations: $252.417M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $200 million cash from operations. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026252,417,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash flow from operating activities increased from $229.5M in 2025-Q2 to $252.4M in 2026-Q2 (+$22.9M). Q1 2026 cash flow was $147.4M. The trajectory shows delivering progress in increasing operating cash flow. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain quarterly dividend of $1.60 per share	Lamar Advertising keeps paying a steady $1.60 quarterly dividend.	Intact	quarterly dividend falls below $1.60 per share	Dividend per share: $1.60 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.60 per share quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 20261.6 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a9de5cc7-e777-4068-aedd-846ed2130e81. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue growth near 5% annually	A primary condition in Lamar Advertising Company's published investment case. The stated target is >= 5% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 4%	Revenue growth: 6.46% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 5% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20266.462505 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a9de5cc7-e777-4068-aedd-846ed2130e81. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$2.47B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$2,469,492,440	1 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$2,469,439,270	1 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$2,469,439,270	1 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$2,469,439,270	1 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$2,469,439,270	1 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$2,469,439,270	1 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$2,400,312,870	1 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$2,400,312,870	1 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$2,400,312,870	1 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$2,483,230,590	1 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	4
2026-06-01	2	4
2026-07-01	2	5
2026-08-01	1	5
2026-09-01	1	5
2026-10-01	1	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Extend stock and debt repurchase programs through Sept 2027Qualitative condition
Increase cash from operating activities to support stabilityCash from operations: $252.417M
Maintain quarterly dividend of $1.60 per shareDividend per share: $1.60 per share
Achieve revenue growth near 5% annuallyRevenue growth: 6.46%

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-12.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Lamar Advertising Company outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

LAMR is a real estate investment tied to ongoing business growth and dividend increases, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance holding up, though earnings quality is fragile and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What's priced into Lamar Advertising Company

The evidence tags valuation as stretched, with a 1.45 premium versus peers and a 0.13 expectations gap. That suggests the market already assumes continued execution and leaves limited room for disappointment, although the evidence does not indicate the full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulent conditions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, management’s growth priority is on track: second-quarter 2026 revenue, net income, and adjusted EBITDA were higher than a year earlier, and full-year AFFO per share guidance was raised. The quarterly dividend also increased, while near-term miss risk is described as low; however, the risk label recently moved to moderate and the industry has a history of misses.

What Lamar Advertising Company hinges on

The main negative scenario is a guidance cut after the recent increase, which could damage confidence in management’s execution. Lower interest rates and continued earnings strength from major real estate peers are potential sector tailwinds, but neither is assured.