Reading EXR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EXR free→Reading EXR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EXR free→NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect future growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 13% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. If EXR cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $146.48. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $147 the market pays 33× p/e — above the 16× p/e peer median but in line with its own 32× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $126 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $140–$158. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 17% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.97x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.16 → $1.16 (+0.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 10.8% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$95.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$207.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,670.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Core FFO growth is key for investor confidence and reflects the company's financial health.
Confirms:Core FFO per share increases above $2.04 in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Core FFO per share declines below $2.00 in Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EXR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 28, 2026, Extra Space Storage Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated by reference herein. The information contained in this Current Report, including the exhibit referenced herein, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Sec…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$140.00 – $158.00 (median $153.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Real Estate (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EXR Extra Space Storage | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | full | moderate |
WELL Welltower | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | low |
PLD Prologis | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | low |
EQIX Equinix | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
AMT American Tower | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to grow Core Funds From Operations (FFO) as a key financial metric.
Management is focused on managing same-store Net Operating Income (NOI) growth.
Why it matters: Same-store revenue growth helps us understand how the company is doing.
Confirms one read:Same-store revenue growth exceeds 1.5% in Q2 2026.
Confirms the other:Same-store revenue growth falls below -0.5% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better same-store NOI growth shows improved operations. This helps Core FFO growth.
Confirms:Same-store NOI growth exceeds 1.25% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Same-store NOI growth remains below -2.25% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Sector growth trends affect Extra Space Storage's performance. A slowdown could impact revenue.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth speeds up to over 8% each year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth continues to decline below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Occupancy rates over 93% mean high demand. This also shows good management.
Confirms:Ending same-store occupancy exceeds 93% at the end of Q2.
Disproves:Ending same-store occupancy drops below 92% at the end of Q2.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 19, 2026, Extra Space Storage Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated by reference herein. The information contained in this Current Report, including the exhibit referenced herein, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Sectio…