Reading PLD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PLD free→Reading PLD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PLD free→NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. The company has a capital-unfriendly stance, and risk is low, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 98% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends, as these could significantly impact performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $148.52. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $149 the market pays 38× p/e — above the 16× p/e peer median but in line with its own 37× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $74 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $135–$161. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 101% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 24%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.38x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.79 → $0.79 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 58% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 2.5% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$100.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$189.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $959.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings will show if Prologis meets its EPS guidance for 2026. This affects investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Net earnings for common stockholders are at least $1.05 per share.
Confirms the other:Net earnings fall below $1.05 per share.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PLD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. Prologis, L.P. (the “Operating Partnership”) expects that Prologis Yen Finance LLC (the “Issuer”) will close the issuance and sale of the Notes (defined below) on June 11, 2026. The information under
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$135.00 – $161.00 (median $153.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-05-26
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PLD Prologis | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 50 of 100 | expensive | low |
LINE Lineage Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | full | moderate |
EGP EastGroup Properties | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | expensive | low |
CUBE CubeSmart | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FR First Industrial Realty Trust | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | low |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Prologis is focusing on issuing new debt to support its capital allocation strategy.
Prologis aims to maintain its strategic capital revenue guidance for 2026.
Prologis is committed to achieving its EPS guidance for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: New debt details will show how Prologis funds growth and manages money.
Confirms one read:Prologis issues new debt with good terms.
Confirms the other:Prologis has problems or bad terms with the debt issuance.
Why it matters: Same store NOI growth is a key indicator of operational performance. It affects long-term outlook.
Confirms:Management confirms same store NOI growth guidance between 6.25% and 7.00%.
Disproves:Management revises same store NOI growth guidance below 6.25%.
Why it matters: Details on new debt will show how Prologis allocates capital. This affects financial health.
Confirms one read:Management says they issued new debt with good terms.
Confirms the other:Management reports problems with issuing new debt or bad terms.
Why it matters: Progress on EPS guidance shows how well Prologis is managing growth. It affects investor confidence.
Confirms:Management confirms they are on track to meet or exceed EPS guidance for 2026.
Disproves:Management states they are falling further behind on EPS guidance for 2026.
Other Events. On June 4, 2026 the Issuer priced an offering of (i) ¥32,600,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 2.527% Notes due 2030 (the “2030 Notes”), (ii) ¥3,500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 3.389% Notes due 2035 (the “2035 Notes”) and (iii) ¥8,900,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 3.905% Notes due 2041 (the “2041 Notes” and, collectively with the 2030 Notes and the 2035 Notes, the “Notes”). In connection with the offering, the Issuer and the Operating Partnershi…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition (Prologis, Inc.) and
Other Events. On April 20, 2026, the Operating Partnership priced an offering of C$850,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 4.250% Notes due 2034 (the “Notes”). In connection with the offering, the Operating Partnership entered into an Underwriting Agreement, dated April 20, 2026 (the “Underwriting Agreement”), with Scotia Capital Inc. and TD Securities Inc., as the underwriters (the “Underwriters”), pursuant to which the Operating Partnership agreed to sell and the Underwriters agreed t…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. Prologis, L.P. (the “Operating Partnership”) expects that it will close the issuance and sale of the Notes (defined below) on April 27, 2026. The information under