Reading REXR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track REXR free→Reading REXR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track REXR free→NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, REXR trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 62% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.81. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $35 the market pays 28× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 41× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $21 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $35–$40. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 65% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Not enough signal yet.
Over the trailing year it converted 2.21x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.27 → $0.26 (-2.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 35% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 4.4% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$106.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$214.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,578.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may show economic weakness. This could lower demand for industrial real estate.
Confirms:Unemployment claims go over 300,000. This shows economic stress.
Disproves:Claims drop below 250,000, suggesting a stable job market.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for REXR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On April 23, 2026, Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, and distributed certain supplemental financial information. On April 23, 2026, the Company also posted the supplemental financial information on its website located at www.rexfordindustrial.com. Copies of the press release and supplemental financial information are furnished herewith as Exhibits 99…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$35.00 – $40.00 (median $38.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-10
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
REXR Rexford Industrial Realty | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PLD Prologis | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | low |
LINE Lineage Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | full | moderate |
EGP EastGroup Properties | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | expensive | low |
CUBE CubeSmart | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing Core Funds From Operations per diluted share.
Initiate repositioning and development projects with estimated costs of $130M to $140M.
Continue to grow dividends, reflecting strong cash flow and financial health.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows that a company is doing well. It also shows they care about giving value to shareholders.
Confirms:Announcement of a dividend increase of at least 5% in 2026.
Disproves:No dividend increase announced during the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Growth in Core FFO would show improvement in earnings and support management's growth goals.
Confirms:Core FFO per diluted share increases above $0.61 in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Core FFO per diluted share remains at or below $0.61 in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a recovery in the real estate sector. This would benefit Rexford's outlook.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth rebounds to above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: New developments show the company's growth strategy. It is key for future earnings.
Confirms:Announcement of at least two new development projects starting in 2026.
Disproves:No new projects announced and delays in current projects.
Why it matters: Selling assets will help with capital use. It will also make the balance sheet stronger.
Confirms:The company sells properties worth at least $400 million by Q3 2026.
Disproves:Dispositions fall short of $400 million by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in Same Property NOI shows strong property performance. It also shows high tenant demand.
Confirms:Same Property Portfolio NOI growth exceeds 0.9% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Same Property Portfolio NOI growth is below 0.9% in Q2 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Appointment of John Nahas as Chief Operating Officer On February 24, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc., a Maryland corporation (the “Company”), appointed John Nahas, age 43, to serve as the Chief Operating Officer of the Company and Rexford Industrial Realty, L.P., a Maryland limited partnership (the “Oper…
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On February 4, 2026, Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. (“Rexford Industrial”) issued a press release announcing its earnings for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, and distributed certain supplemental financial information. On February 4, 2026, Rexford Industrial also posted the supplemental financial information on its website located at www.rexfordindustrial.com. Copies of the press release and supplemental financial information are furnished he…
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On October 15, 2025, Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. (“Rexford Industrial”) issued a press release announcing its earnings for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, and distributed certain supplemental financial information. On October 15, 2025, Rexford Industrial also posted the supplemental financial information on its website located at www.rexfordindustrial.com. Copies of the press release and supplemental financial information are furnished h…