Reading STAG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STAG free→Reading STAG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STAG free→NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is low, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 23% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If STAG cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $38.47. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $39 the market pays 32× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 32× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $31 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $38–$44. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 26% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Not enough signal yet.
Over the trailing year it converted 1.96x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.27 → $0.22 (-19.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 27% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$83.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$179.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $944.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in net income per share may mean profit problems.
Confirms:Net income per share reported below $0.30 for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Net income per share reported above $0.30 for Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for STAG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On April 28, 2026, STAG Industrial, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the three months ended March 31, 2026, and its financial condition as of March 31, 2026. A copy of such press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The press release referred to certain supplemental information that is available in the Investor Relations section of the Company’s website at www.stagindustrial.com.…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$38.00 – $44.00 (median $40.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-05
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
STAG STAG Industrial | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | full | low |
PLD Prologis | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 50 of 100 | expensive | low |
EGP EastGroup Properties | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | expensive | low |
LINE Lineage Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | full | moderate |
CUBE CubeSmart | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on disciplined capital allocation to drive long-term value creation.
Maintain heightened leasing activity to support revenue growth.
Achieve healthy growth in Same Store Cash NOI to enhance financial performance.
Why it matters: Occupancy rates are important for steady revenue. A drop may show trouble keeping tenants.
Confirms:Occupancy rate drops below 95.1%.
Disproves:Occupancy rate remains at or above 95.1%.
Why it matters: This metric shows how well existing properties perform. A drop signals potential issues in leasing or market demand.
Confirms:Q2 Same Store Cash NOI growth below 4.1%.
Disproves:Same Store Cash NOI growth meets or exceeds 4.1%.
Why it matters: Leasing activity impacts revenue and occupancy rates. A drop may show weaker demand.
Confirms:Leasing activity in Q2 drops below 6 million square feet.
Disproves:Leasing activity in Q2 exceeds 6 million square feet.
Why it matters: A bigger acquisition pipeline shows growth potential. It also shows confidence in the market.
Confirms:The acquisition pipeline is over $4 billion in the next update.
Disproves:The acquisition pipeline is below $3.5 billion in the next update.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how STAG is performing in a slowing sector. Investors will look for revenue growth trends.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings show revenue growth speeding up again. It is getting closer to past highs.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth slowing down or falling. This trend is continuing.
Why it matters: The real estate sector is maturing. Changes in revenue growth could signal a shift in market dynamics.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth is starting to speed up again. This follows recent drops.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth keeps falling. This shows a trend that is getting older.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On February 11, 2026, STAG Industrial, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025, and its financial condition as of December 31, 2025. A copy of such press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The press release referred to certain supplemental information that is available in the Investor Relations section of the Company’s website at www.st…
OTHER EVENTS. As previously disclosed on February 13, 2025, STAG Industrial, Inc., a Maryland corporation (the “ Company ”), and its operating partnership, STAG Industrial Operating Partnership, L.P., a Delaware limited partnership (the “ Operating Partnership ”), entered into certain amendments to the separate equity distribution agreements (collectively, as amended, the “ Original Equity Distribution Agreement s”) with each of Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, BofA Securities, Inc., BMO C…