Reading FR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FR free→Reading FR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FR free→NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash flow. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and the company has a capital-friendly approach. Risk is low, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind, with FR trading above typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $62.82. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $63 the market pays 25× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 25× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $47 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $65–$68. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 35% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.35x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.43 → $0.42 (-1.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 56% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$100.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$179.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,024.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'expensive'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth continues or slows. This is key for future performance.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows funds from operations (FFO) above $0.72 per share.
Confirms the other:FFO falls below $0.68 per share, indicating weaker performance.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On April 22, 2026, First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026 and certain other information. Attached and incorporated by reference as Exhibit 99.1 is a copy of the Company’s press release dated April 22, 2026, announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026 and certain other information. On April 23, 2026, th…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$65.00 – $68.00 (median $66.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FR First Industrial Realty Trust | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | low |
PLD Prologis | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | expensive | low |
LINE Lineage Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | full | moderate |
EGP EastGroup Properties | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | expensive | low |
CUBE CubeSmart | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on acquiring properties to drive revenue growth.
Continue to increase dividends as part of capital allocation strategy.
Focus on improving operating income through cost management and revenue growth.
Why it matters: A drop in occupancy rates may show weaker demand in the logistics real estate market.
Confirms:In Q2 2026, occupancy rates fall below 94%.
Disproves:Occupancy rates stay above 94% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising dividends shows good financial health. This attracts investors.
Confirms:Look for news about a dividend increase or steady dividend payments.
Disproves:News of a dividend cut or suspension is a concern.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means the company is controlling costs. It is also making more money.
Confirms:Operating income grows to at least $160M in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income falls below $150M in Q2.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows how well the company is buying new properties. This affects overall earnings.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth is over 10% compared to last year. This shows strong success in getting new customers.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is less than 5% year over year, suggesting acquisition struggles.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can show that management believes in the company's value and growth.
Confirms:Management will announce big share buybacks in the next quarter.
Disproves:If no share buybacks happen, it may show worries about cash flow.
Why it matters: This sale will confirm the strength of the real estate market and cash flow for First Industrial.
Confirms:The 100-acre land sale closes for $131 million as expected.
Disproves:The sale does not close or the price is significantly lower than $131 million.
Why it matters: A rise in sector growth may mean better results for First Industrial.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth speeds up to over 5% compared to last year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth remains below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: New property acquisitions can boost revenue and support growth goals.
Confirms:Look for news about a big property purchase over $10 million.
Disproves:No new property purchases are announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Strong rental rate growth signals demand for logistics space. This affects revenue and profits.
Confirms:Cash rental rates increase by more than 30% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Cash rental rates increase by less than 20% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows the company wants to give value back to shareholders.
Confirms:Dividend per share increases to at least $0.52 in Q2.
Disproves:No increase in dividend per share, remaining at $0.50 or lower.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. 2026 Employee Bonus Plan On March 25, 2026, the Board ratified the criteria proposed by its Compensation Committee for establishing an incentive bonus pool under the Company’s incentive compensation plan (the “2026 Employee Bonus Plan”). This pool will be used to grant awards to eligible employees, including the chief executive officer and certain…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 13, 2026 and effective June 1, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) approved an increase in the size of the Board from six to seven members and, upon the recommendation of the Nominating/Corporate Governance Committee, elected Frank E. Schmitz to fill the vacancy created by such increase, effective on such date. Mr. Schmitz…
. 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) * Filed herewith SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. FIRST INDUSTRIAL REALTY TRUST, INC. By: /s/ JENNIFER MATTHEWS RICE Jennifer Matthews Rice General Counsel Date: March 16, 2026 FIRST INDUSTRIAL, L.P. By: FIRST INDUSTRIAL REALTY TRUST, INC. as general pa…
Other Events. On March 13, 2026, the Board approved a new stock repurchase program (the “Repurchase Program”) with authorization for the Company to purchase up to $250 million of its common stock. Repurchases under the Repurchase Program may be made in the open market, in privately negotiated transactions or by other methods, with the amount and timing of repurchases to be determined at the Company’s discretion, depending on market conditions and corporate needs. Open market repurchases will…