First Industrial Realty Trust (FR)

NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-10-23

$54.44-1.54%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge First Industrial Realty Trust’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	201.07M
EPS	—	0.444
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	206.33M
EPS	—	0.382
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	786.81M
EPS	—	2.541
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	836.69M
EPS	—	1.907

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Sustained dividend per share growth	Dividends per share increased from $0.445 to $0.50, showing steady capital return.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.45 next year	Dividend per share: $0.50 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.50 next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 22, 20260.5 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d52b7e32-eb87-4fa8-b826-f2ea829ee9da. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improvement	A primary condition in First Industrial Realty Trust's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or grow operating income near $150M next quarter.	Intact	Operating income falls below $100M next year	Operating income: $87.901M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain or grow operating income near $150M next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 202687,901,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth through property acquisitions	A primary condition in First Industrial Realty Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >=9% YoY revenue growth.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year	Revenue growth: 8.65% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=9% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 22, 20268.645208 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d52b7e32-eb87-4fa8-b826-f2ea829ee9da. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.84B

$0.85B → $0.84B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$847,839,700	4 / 6
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$846,565,560	3 / 9
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$846,565,560	3 / 9
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$843,739,700	4 / 6
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$843,739,700	4 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$843,184,380	3 / 9
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$843,669,700	4 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$843,184,380	3 / 9
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$843,669,700	4 / 6
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$842,324,380	3 / 9
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$842,324,380	3 / 9
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$842,324,380	3 / 9
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$842,324,380	3 / 9
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$843,669,700	4 / 6
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$843,028,556	4 / 6
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$841,281,940	4 / 10
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$841,281,940	4 / 10
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$841,281,940	4 / 10
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$841,281,940	4 / 10
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$843,028,556	4 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$843,028,556	4 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$843,028,556	4 / 6
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$843,028,556	4 / 7
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$843,028,556	4 / 7
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$843,028,556	4 / 7
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$843,028,556	4 / 7
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$843,028,556	4 / 7
2026-08-20	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-08-21	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-08-22	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-08-23	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-08-24	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-08-25	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-08-26	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-08-27	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-08-28	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-08-29	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-08-30	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-08-31	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-09-01	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-09-02	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-09-03	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-09-04	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-09-05	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-09-06	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-09-07	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-09-08	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-09-09	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-09-10	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-09-11	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-09-12	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-09-13	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-09-14	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-09-15	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-09-16	$1.92	$839,795,600	5 / 7
2026-09-17	$1.95	$842,181,556	5 / 7
2026-09-18	$1.95	$842,181,556	5 / 7
2026-09-19	$1.95	$842,181,556	5 / 7
2026-09-20	$1.95	$842,181,556	5 / 7
2026-09-21	$1.95	$842,181,556	5 / 7
2026-09-22	$1.95	$842,181,556	5 / 7
2026-09-23	$1.95	$842,181,556	5 / 7
2026-09-24	$1.95	$842,181,556	5 / 7
2026-09-25	$1.93	$839,435,300	5 / 7
2026-09-26	$1.93	$839,435,300	5 / 7
2026-09-27	$1.93	$839,435,300	5 / 7
2026-09-28	$1.93	$839,435,300	5 / 7
2026-09-29	$1.93	$839,435,300	5 / 7
2026-09-30	$1.93	$839,435,300	5 / 7
2026-10-01	$1.93	$839,435,300	5 / 7
2026-10-02	$1.93	$839,435,300	5 / 7
2026-10-03	$1.93	$839,435,300	5 / 7
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$839,435,300	4 / 7
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$839,435,300	4 / 7
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$839,435,300	4 / 7
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$839,435,300	4 / 7
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$839,435,300	4 / 7
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$839,435,300	4 / 7
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$839,435,300	4 / 7
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$839,435,300	4 / 7
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$839,435,300	4 / 7
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$839,435,300	4 / 7
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$839,435,300	4 / 6
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$839,435,300	4 / 6
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$839,435,300	4 / 6
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$839,435,300	4 / 6
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$839,435,300	4 / 6
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$839,435,300	4 / 6
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$839,435,300	4 / 6
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$838,932,832	4 / 6
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$837,660,105	4 / 6
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$836,868,014	4 / 6
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$836,686,196	4 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	7
2026-06-01	10	7
2026-07-01	10	7
2026-08-01	10	7
2026-09-01	10	7
2026-10-01	11	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 23

$71.00New observation · no comparable prior

Raymond JamesOct 23 · prior Jun 17

$83.00 → $71.00-14.5%

Goldman SachsOct 23

$62.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$45.65$91.30

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Sustained dividend per share growthDividend per share: $0.50 per share
Operating income improvementOperating income: $87.901M
Revenue growth through property acquisitionsPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

First Industrial Realty Trust outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FR is a real estate growth and income business, with recurring growth from leasing, development, and investment. The long-term thesis remains intact but is on watch: momentum improved, while risk moved from low to moderate and recent performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into First Industrial Realty Trust

Valuation is described as broadly aligned with fundamentals, and fragility is low rather than a combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence. FR trades at a small premium to peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding; confidence in that assessment is high.

What the fundamentals likely do

In the near term, recent results were in line after an earnings beat, but the evidence also notes erratic surprises and consecutive misses. Over the multi-year view, revenue growth and new leasing support continued expansion, while cash same-store NOI growth has slowed from full-year 2025 and remains a point to monitor. Management has raised guidance, so a reversal and cut would also weaken credibility.

What First Industrial Realty Trust hinges on

The key swing factor is whether FR sustains operating growth without reversing its recently raised guidance. In the near term, Fed rate cuts could help rate-sensitive real estate, and continued strong results from sector peers could support the sector backdrop. The evidence does not establish how likely these scenarios are.