Reading TRNO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TRNO free→Reading TRNO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TRNO free→NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, profits lack cash backing. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 93% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This means it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $66.72. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $67 the market pays 41× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 36× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $35 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 90% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 19%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Not enough signal yet.
Over the trailing year it converted 0.64x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.31 → $0.40 (+29.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 61% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 6.5% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$78.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$214.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $905.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the real estate sector. This would help Terreno Realty improve its fragile quality status.
Confirms:Three-year revenue growth shows an increase back toward 10% or higher.
Disproves:Three-year revenue growth remains below 5% for another quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TRNO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. In connection with the commencement of an “at the market” equity offering program (the “ATM Program”), Terreno Realty Corporation (the “Company”) filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) a prospectus supplement dated February 17, 2026 (the “Prospectus Supplement”), pursuant to which the Company may issue and sell shares of its common stock having an aggregate offering price of up to $500,000,000 (the “Shares”) in amounts and at times to be determined by the…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TRNO Terreno Realty Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | low |
PLD Prologis | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | low |
LINE Lineage Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | full | moderate |
EGP EastGroup Properties | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | expensive | low |
CUBE CubeSmart | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.