Terreno Realty Corporation (TRNO)

NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-10-23

$65.15-0.75%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Terreno Realty Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	132.26M
EPS	—	0.47
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	510.46M
EPS	—	2.11
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	570.24M
EPS	—	1.801

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
free cash flow yield near 3%	Margins and cash flow remain stable with a free cash flow yield near 3%.	Under Pressure	free cash flow yield falls below 2%	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
maintain stable profit margins	Margins and cash flow remain stable with a free cash flow yield near 3%.	Broken	profit margins decline more than 5% from current levels	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
sustain ~11% annual revenue growth	A primary condition in Terreno Realty Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=11% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 8% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$0.57B

$0.57B → $0.57B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$573,225,110	3 / 12
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$573,225,110	3 / 12
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$577,734,200	3 / 9
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$573,225,110	3 / 12
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$573,225,110	3 / 12
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$577,734,200	3 / 9
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$573,225,110	3 / 12
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$577,734,200	3 / 9
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$577,734,200	3 / 9
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$573,225,110	3 / 12
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$573,225,110	3 / 12
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$577,734,200	3 / 9
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$577,734,200	3 / 9
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$573,225,110	3 / 12
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$578,534,200	3 / 9
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$578,534,200	3 / 9
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$571,388,190	3 / 12
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$578,534,200	3 / 9
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$573,613,870	3 / 13
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$578,534,200	3 / 9
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$578,534,200	3 / 9
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$578,534,200	3 / 9
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$578,534,200	3 / 9
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$578,534,200	3 / 9
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$578,534,200	3 / 9
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$571,404,000	4 / 9
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$571,404,000	4 / 9
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$571,404,000	4 / 9
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$571,404,000	4 / 9
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$571,404,000	4 / 9
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$571,404,000	4 / 9
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$571,404,000	4 / 9
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$571,404,000	4 / 9
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$571,404,000	4 / 9
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$571,404,000	4 / 9
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$571,404,000	4 / 9
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$571,404,000	4 / 9
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$571,404,000	4 / 9
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$572,265,111	3 / 9
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$571,709,222	3 / 9
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$571,709,222	3 / 9
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$571,709,222	3 / 9
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$571,709,222	3 / 9
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$571,709,222	3 / 9
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$571,709,222	3 / 9
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$571,709,222	3 / 9
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$571,757,333	3 / 9
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$571,757,333	3 / 9
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$571,757,333	3 / 9
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$571,757,333	3 / 9
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$571,757,333	3 / 9
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$571,990,667	3 / 8
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$571,990,667	3 / 8
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$571,326,222	3 / 8
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$571,326,222	3 / 8
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$571,326,222	3 / 8
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$571,326,222	3 / 8
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$571,326,222	3 / 8
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$571,326,222	3 / 8
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$570,240,127	3 / 8
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$570,240,127	3 / 8
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$570,240,127	3 / 8
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$570,240,127	3 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	11	6	1
2026-06-01	11	6	2
2026-07-01	11	6	2
2026-08-01	11	6	2
2026-09-01	11	6	2
2026-10-01	12	6	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerOct 12 · prior Jul 21

$91.00 → $85.00-6.6%

BMO CapitalOct 12

$75.00New observation · no comparable prior

RBC CapitalOct 7

$73.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$50.05$100.10

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

free cash flow yield near 3%Published status: Under Pressure
maintain stable profit marginsPublished status: Broken
sustain ~11% annual revenue growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-15.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Terreno Realty Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a real estate investment with a thesis that depends partly on sector conditions and company execution. The current thesis state is insufficient because there is not enough recent financial-performance history to assess it.

What's priced into Terreno Realty Corporation

Valuation is neutral, while TRNO carries a premium to peers. Expectations appear broadly aligned with the model, and the evidence says the premium is justified rather than reflecting a high level of fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, execution is a concern: earnings quality is assessed as fragile, recent quarters have included misses, and company momentum weakened. Management is assessed as stable, but the sector backdrop is a headwind; the evidence does not provide enough detail to establish a multi-year earnings path.

What Terreno Realty Corporation hinges on

A shift toward Fed rate cuts could ease a headwind for rate-sensitive real estate names. The sector signal also depends on whether bellwethers PLD, PSA, and EXR continue to report strong results and raise guidance, or instead miss and guide lower.