Reading BNL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BNL free→Reading BNL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BNL free→NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is neutral. Risk is low, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the broader market. Compared with sector peers, BNL trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $20.95. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $21 the market pays 30× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 30× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $21 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $20–$22. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 1% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.41x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.18 → $0.18 (+1.7% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 6.8% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$67.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$149.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $834.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Steady net income growth helps financial health and boosts investor confidence.
Confirms:Net income grows year-over-year in Q2 2026 compared to Q2 2025.
Disproves:Net income declines or remains flat year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BNL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Additionally, on April 29, 2026, the Company made available on its website an updated presentation containing quarterly supplemental information pertaining to its operations and financial re…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$20.00 – $22.00 (median $22.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-08
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BNL Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | full | low |
PLD Prologis | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 50 of 100 | expensive | low |
EGP EastGroup Properties | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | expensive | low |
LINE Lineage Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | full | moderate |
CUBE CubeSmart | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
BNL aims to maintain its AFFO guidance of $1.53 to $1.57 per share for 2026.
BNL is focused on expanding its build-to-suit development pipeline to drive growth.
BNL aims to increase net income through strategic investments and operational efficiency.
Why it matters: Keeping AFFO guidance shows strong performance and growth.
Confirms:AFFO per share remains between $1.53 and $1.57 for 2026.
Disproves:AFFO per share falls outside the guidance range.
Why it matters: This project is key for BNL's growth and shows demand for their developments.
Confirms:The Tesla project in Austin will stabilize by Q4 2027.
Disproves:The project is late. It is past the expected stabilization date.
Why it matters: More projects in the pipeline show growth and demand for BNL's services.
Confirms:BNL adds over $30 million in new build-to-suit developments in a quarter.
Disproves:No new build-to-suit projects are announced for two quarters.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 18, 2026, Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Additionally, on February 18, 2026, the Company made available on its website an updated presentation containing quarterly supplemental information pertaining to its operations and fin…