Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. (BNL)

NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-10-23

$17.36-1.08%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	126.08M
EPS	—	0.168
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	491.01M
EPS	—	0.756
AFFO per share	$1.55–$1.57	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	536.83M
EPS	—	0.718

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain AFFO between $1.53 and $1.57 per share in 2026	Broadstone Net Lease delivers steady income with AFFO near $1.55 per share in 2026.	Intact	AFFO per share falls below $1.53 or above $1.57 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain build-to-suit investments above $60 million quarterly	The company grows its build-to-suit pipeline with over $200 million invested recently.	Intact	quarterly build-to-suit investments fall below $60 million	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The committed build-to-suit pipeline grew to $645 million by 2026-Q2, including a $303 million project with a Fortune 20 tenant started that quarter. Additional build-to-suit projects totaling $62.1 million were added in 2025-Q4 and further developments started in 2026-Q3. The trajectory shows consistent expansion and execution on build-to-suit developments, delivering on management's stated growth strategy. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Increase net income to at least $46 million in Q1 2026	Net income rose sharply to $46.4 million in Q1 2026.	Intact	net income falls below $46 million in Q1 2026	Net income: $39.799M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $46 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 29, 202639,799,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: be4d8924-041b-4f77-b7b7-b996a4c8f4c8. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management emphasized increasing net income and EPS in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net income rose from $33.1 million in 2025-Q4 to $40.3 million in 2026-Q2, while diluted EPS increased from $0.14 to $0.21 over the same period. This reflects delivering on the priority to grow earnings through portfolio strength and operational execution. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve revenue growth near 9% in 2026	A supporting condition in Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 9% YoY.	Broken	revenue growth falls below 7% YoY in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$0.81 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.54B

$0.54B → $0.54B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.81	$536,646,310	6 / 9
2026-07-25	$0.81	$536,646,310	6 / 9
2026-07-26	$0.81	$536,646,310	6 / 9
2026-07-27	$0.81	$536,646,310	6 / 9
2026-07-28	$0.81	$536,646,310	6 / 9
2026-07-29	$0.81	$536,646,310	6 / 9
2026-07-30	$0.81	$536,646,310	6 / 9
2026-07-31	$0.82	$533,253,970	5 / 8
2026-08-01	$0.82	$533,253,970	5 / 8
2026-08-02	$0.82	$535,844,470	5 / 8
2026-08-03	$0.82	$535,844,470	5 / 8
2026-08-04	$0.82	$535,844,470	5 / 8
2026-08-05	$0.82	$535,644,470	5 / 8
2026-08-06	$0.82	$535,644,470	5 / 8
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$534,237,077	4 / 6
2026-08-08	$0.82	$535,644,470	5 / 8
2026-08-09	$0.82	$535,644,470	5 / 8
2026-08-10	$0.82	$535,644,470	5 / 8
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$534,237,077	4 / 6
2026-08-12	$0.82	$530,136,540	5 / 7
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$534,237,077	4 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$534,237,077	4 / 6
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$534,237,077	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$534,237,077	4 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$534,237,077	4 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$534,237,077	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$534,237,077	4 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$534,912,292	4 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$534,912,292	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$534,912,292	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$534,912,292	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$534,912,292	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$534,912,292	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$535,586,692	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$535,586,692	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$535,586,692	4 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$535,586,692	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$535,586,692	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$535,586,692	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$535,586,692	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$535,586,692	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$535,586,692	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$535,586,692	4 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$535,586,692	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$535,586,692	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$535,586,692	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$535,586,692	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$535,586,692	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$535,586,692	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$535,586,692	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$535,586,692	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$535,586,692	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$535,586,692	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$535,699,278	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$534,635,547	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$534,456,790	4 / 6
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$534,456,790	4 / 6
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$534,456,790	4 / 6
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$534,456,790	4 / 6
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$534,456,790	4 / 6
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$534,141,125	4 / 6
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$534,141,125	4 / 6
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$534,141,125	4 / 6
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$534,141,125	4 / 6
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$534,141,125	4 / 6
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$534,141,125	4 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$534,141,125	4 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$534,141,125	4 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$534,141,125	4 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$534,141,125	4 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$534,141,125	4 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$535,047,012	4 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$535,047,012	4 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$531,853,902	4 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$531,853,902	4 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$531,853,902	4 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$531,853,902	4 / 6
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$531,853,902	4 / 6
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$531,853,902	4 / 6
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$531,853,902	4 / 6
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$531,853,902	4 / 6
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$531,853,902	4 / 6
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$531,853,902	4 / 6
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$531,853,902	4 / 6
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$531,853,902	4 / 6
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$531,853,902	4 / 6
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$537,376,012	4 / 6
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$537,376,012	4 / 6
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$536,826,012	4 / 6
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$536,826,012	4 / 6
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$536,826,012	4 / 6
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$536,826,012	4 / 6
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$536,826,012	4 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	8	3
2026-06-01	8	4
2026-07-01	7	4
2026-08-01	7	4
2026-09-01	7	4
2026-10-01	8	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 1 · prior Jun 8

$22.00 → $21.00-4.5%

$0$12.10$24.20

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain AFFO between $1.53 and $1.57 per share in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Sustain build-to-suit investments above $60 million quarterlyDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Increase net income to at least $46 million in Q1 2026Net income: $39.799M
Achieve revenue growth near 9% in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-24.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

BNL is a real estate investment trust with a growth thesis tied to build-to-suit developments and portfolio execution. The thesis is intact, and recent signals have shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though confidence is medium.

What's priced into Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.

The valuation evidence describes BNL as cheap versus peers, while the priced-in tag says current expectations are justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is negative, but the evidence does not define its scale in plain terms, so the precise market assumption is unclear.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong: management raised 2026 AFFO guidance at the midpoint, while net income and diluted EPS increased from late 2025 to the second quarter of 2026. The build-to-suit pipeline is expanding, but real estate faces sector headwinds and the industry has a history of earnings misses, so execution remains important.

What Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. hinges on

Over the next year, continued pipeline growth and steady guidance would support the operating thesis, while a guidance cut after the recent increase would damage management credibility. Fed rate cuts and continued strong results from real estate peers could ease the sector headwind, but neither outcome is established in the evidence.