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Public Storage (PSA)
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$320.20-0.24%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the broader market. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers, as these could significantly impact PSA's outlook. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Industrial
- Market cap
- $57.22B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2007-08-09
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $320.20. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$259.08consensus
Range $190.31 – $314.39
vs price: +24% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$267.62consensus
Range $191.37 – $315.94
vs price: +20% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfull
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiummedium confidence
At $320 the market pays 31× p/e — above the 17× p/e peer median but in line with its own 30× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $261 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $302–$352. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
31.2x
peer 17.3x · own history 29.6x
Premium
1.8x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
24%
our forecast 4%
Our fair value
$261.08
range $190.26 – $312.56
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 24% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
80th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.67x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
45th pctl · Real Estate
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral2 analysts, 37% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.52 → $2.54 (+0.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 37% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.1% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in maturing (~1.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$98.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$209.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,620.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for the National Storage Affiliates deal to finish.
Why it matters: This deal will grow Public Storage's portfolio. It will also help earnings.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The deal will close in Q3 2026. All approvals are in place.
Disproves:The deal may not close if shareholders do not approve it or if there are regulatory problems.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2023-02-063y agoFox Business
Advances: Accretive transaction synergies
Hostile bid enhances growth through accretive transaction synergies.
Strongly reinforcesConfirmed
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in the Real Estate sector.
- Watch for FOMC decisions that change interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for PSA and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like PLD, EXR, and LINE keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting PSA and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If PSA raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-27), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If PSA cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-27), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like PLD, EXR, and LINE start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping PSA and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0116d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. The Investor Presentation includes the following operating update for the periods from April 1 through May 28, 2026 and 2025. Same Store Facilities Operating Update (a) Period Ended May 28, 2026 2025 Change (b) (Amounts in thousands, except for per square foot amounts) Customers moving in during the period: Average annual contract rent per square foot (c) $ 13.10 $ 13.13 (0.2)% Customers moving out during the period: Average annual contract rent per square foot (c) $ 18.98 $ 19.…
Legal / regulatorynegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.5 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.