Weyerhaeuser (WY)

NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-15

$19.61+1.19%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Weyerhaeuser’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-13.8% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.72 → 0.62 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase Adjusted EBITDA by $1.5 billion by 2030	The company targets $1.5 billion more EBITDA by 2030.	Improving	Adjusted EBITDA growth falls short of adding $1.5 billion by 2030	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near analyst consensus of 7% next year	A supporting condition in Weyerhaeuser's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth in next 12 months.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA at approximately $425 million	Strategic Land Solutions aims for $425 million EBITDA in 2026, showing solid segment growth.	Intact	Segment Adjusted EBITDA falls significantly below $425 million in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain valuation multiple closer to peer median PE of ~16	A supporting condition in Weyerhaeuser's published investment case. The stated target is PE ratio below 30 (toward peer median 16).	Intact	PE remains above 50 without earnings growth support	P/E (TTM): 92.29x As of 2026-10-15; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 15, 202692.2857 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 15, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: WY:2026-10-15. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.62

$0.71 → $0.62 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.74B

$7.63B → $7.74B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.71	$7,626,311,001	8 / 8
2026-07-25	$0.67	$7,574,877,840	11 / 10
2026-07-26	$0.67	$7,574,877,840	11 / 10
2026-07-27	$0.71	$7,574,926,736	8 / 8
2026-07-28	$0.71	$7,574,926,736	8 / 8
2026-07-29	$0.67	$7,584,987,840	11 / 10
2026-07-30	$0.67	$7,584,987,840	11 / 10
2026-07-31	$0.67	$7,584,987,840	11 / 10
2026-08-01	$0.72	$7,665,850,060	8 / 8
2026-08-02	$0.72	$7,698,687,818	8 / 8
2026-08-03	$0.66	$7,620,273,150	11 / 10
2026-08-04	$0.72	$7,698,687,818	8 / 8
2026-08-05	$0.67	$7,661,929,100	11 / 10
2026-08-06	$0.72	$7,698,687,818	8 / 8
2026-08-08	$0.72	$7,698,687,818	8 / 8
2026-08-09	$0.72	$7,698,687,818	8 / 8
2026-08-10	$0.72	$7,698,687,818	8 / 8
2026-08-12	$0.68	$7,711,539,100	11 / 10
2026-08-13	$0.68	$7,711,539,100	11 / 10
2026-08-14	$0.72	$7,698,687,818	8 / 8
2026-08-15	$0.72	$7,698,687,818	8 / 8
2026-08-16	$0.72	$7,698,687,818	8 / 8
2026-08-17	$0.72	$7,698,687,818	8 / 8
2026-08-18	$0.72	$7,698,687,818	8 / 8
2026-08-19	$0.72	$7,698,687,818	8 / 8
2026-08-20	$0.73	$7,751,934,360	8 / 8
2026-08-21	$0.73	$7,751,934,360	8 / 8
2026-08-22	$0.73	$7,751,934,360	8 / 8
2026-08-23	$0.73	$7,751,934,360	8 / 8
2026-08-24	$0.73	$7,751,934,360	8 / 8
2026-08-25	$0.73	$7,751,934,360	8 / 8
2026-08-26	$0.73	$7,751,934,360	8 / 8
2026-08-27	$0.73	$7,751,934,360	8 / 8
2026-08-28	$0.73	$7,751,934,360	8 / 8
2026-08-29	$0.73	$7,751,934,360	8 / 8
2026-08-30	$0.73	$7,751,934,360	8 / 8
2026-08-31	$0.73	$7,751,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-01	$0.73	$7,751,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-02	$0.73	$7,751,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-03	$0.73	$7,751,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-04	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-05	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-06	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-07	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-08	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-09	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-10	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-11	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-12	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-13	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-14	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-15	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-16	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-17	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-18	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-19	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-20	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-21	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-22	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-23	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-24	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-25	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-26	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-27	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-28	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-29	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-09-30	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-10-01	$0.72	$7,795,934,360	8 / 8
2026-10-02	$0.70	$7,780,752,542	8 / 8
2026-10-03	$0.70	$7,780,752,542	8 / 8
2026-10-04	$0.70	$7,780,752,542	8 / 8
2026-10-05	$0.70	$7,780,752,542	8 / 8
2026-10-06	$0.70	$7,780,752,542	8 / 8
2026-10-07	$0.69	$7,768,781,149	8 / 8
2026-10-08	$0.69	$7,796,235,494	8 / 8
2026-10-09	$0.66	$7,772,690,040	8 / 8
2026-10-10	$0.66	$7,772,690,040	8 / 8
2026-10-11	$0.66	$7,772,690,040	8 / 8
2026-10-12	$0.66	$7,772,690,040	8 / 8
2026-10-13	$0.63	$7,748,280,949	8 / 8
2026-10-14	$0.63	$7,740,219,494	8 / 8
2026-10-15	$0.62	$7,741,411,732	8 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	3
2026-06-01	9	3
2026-07-01	10	3
2026-08-01	9	3
2026-09-01	9	3
2026-10-01	10	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Seaport GlobalOct 8

$30.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$16.50$33.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase Adjusted EBITDA by $1.5 billion by 2030Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Sustain revenue growth near analyst consensus of 7% next yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA at approximately $425 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain valuation multiple closer to peer median PE of ~16P/E (TTM): 92.29x

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Weyerhaeuser outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a stable growth investment with a focus on long-term performance. The current thesis remains intact, as recent financial results have been strong, but confidence has shifted to medium due to potential risks in the sector.

What's priced into Weyerhaeuser

The market seems to have a neutral view on WY's valuation, with a slight premium compared to peers. There is a low expectations gap, indicating that the current performance is generally in line with what investors anticipate.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on increasing Adjusted EBITDA and advancing growth initiatives, which have shown positive results so far. However, there is a moderate risk of missing guidance, although the probability is relatively low.

What Weyerhaeuser hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and the performance of sector leaders like EQIX, AMT, and DLR. Any negative guidance from WY could significantly impact credibility and stock performance.