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NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$273.87+0.33%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind, helping the company. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the stock's trajectory. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Software - Infrastructure
- Market cap
- $25.47B
- Employees
- 928
- IPO date
- 1997-11-21
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-23
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $273.87. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$278.67consensus
Range $213.99 – $286.76
vs price: -2% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$356.08consensus
Range $200.37 – $362.32
vs price: -23% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $273 VRSN trades at 30× p/e, in line with its 30× p/e peer median. Our $279 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
30.2x
peer 30.2x · own history 30.9x
Premium
1.0x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-2%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$279.40
range $214.46 – $286.16
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 2% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
72nd pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.28x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
31st pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatile16 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish3 analysts, 50% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.36 → $2.36 (+0.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$98.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$292.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,021.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 11d
Watch for the upcoming dividend payment on May 27, 2026
Why it matters: The dividend shows how well the company is doing. It also shows they care about their shareholders.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The dividend payment is on time. This shows the company is financially stable.
Disproves:If the dividend payment is late or canceled, it may mean financial problems.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VRSN yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for VRSN and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like MSFT, ORCL, and PLTR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting VRSN and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If VRSN raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-02-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If VRSN cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-02-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like MSFT, ORCL, and PLTR start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping VRSN and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2127d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. At the Annual Meeting of Stockholders of VeriSign, Inc. (the “Company”) held on May 21, 2026, the Company’s stockholders approved the Amendment and Restatement of the VeriSign, Inc. 2006 Equity Incentive Plan (the “Amended 2006 Plan”). The Company’s Board of Directors previously approved the Amended 2006 Plan, subject to stockholder approval. The A…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.