Reading AMAT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMAT free→Reading AMAT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMAT free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductor Equipment & MaterialsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, AMAT is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include any potential cuts to guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers like ASML and LRCX.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $568.23. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $567 AMAT trades at 57× p/e, below its 63× p/e peer median. Our $529 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $480–$650. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 7% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.94x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.90 → $3.38 (+16.5% / 30d). 25 raised, 0 cut, 30 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 6 maintained. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.5% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$180.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$490.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,137.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
risk label changed from 'elevated' to 'moderate'.
As of June 16, 2026, risk fell, with the risk label changing from elevated to moderate. Recent financial performance remained strong, while earnings quality was described as fragile. The sector backdrop was noted as a tailwind, and management was assessed as neutral.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in cash flow may show operational issues and affect future investments.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations remains above $800 million.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations drops below $800 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Grow semiconductor equipment business by 20% in 2026
Signals growth in semiconductor equipment business.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 14, 2026, Applied Materials, Inc. (“Applied Materials”) announced its financial results for its second quarter ended April 26, 2026. A copy of Applied Materials’ press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject t…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$480.00 – $650.00 (median $520.00) · 27 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductor Materials & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AMAT Applied Materials | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | full | moderate |
ASML ASML Holding N.V. | — | — | moderate |
LRCX Lam Research | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | elevated |
KLAC KLA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
TER Teradyne | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 8 guided quarters · 5.9% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Applied Materials aims to grow its semiconductor equipment business by 20% in 2026.
Applied Materials is focused on expanding its system manufacturing capability to support market growth.
Applied Materials is focusing on energy-efficient AI computing as a key driver of semiconductor innovation.
Advances: Expand system manufacturing capability
Investment boosts system manufacturing capability and R&D.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 12, 2026, Applied Materials, Inc. (“Applied Materials”) announced its financial results for its first quarter ended January 25, 2026. A copy of Applied Materials’ press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise sub…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 13, 2025, Applied Materials, Inc. (“Applied Materials”) announced its financial results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year ended October 26, 2025. A copy of Applied Materials’ press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”),…
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On October 23, 2025, Applied Materials, Inc. (“Applied” or the “Company”) approved a workforce reduction plan to position the Company for continued growth as a more competitive and productive organization. Applied expects approximately four percent of its global workforce to be impacted under this action and the Company to incur charges of approximately $160 million to $180 million, consisting primarily of severance and other one-time employm…
and Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liability under that section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing of Applied under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference in such filing. Forward-Looking Statements This report contains forward-loo…