Reading ONTO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ONTO free→Reading ONTO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ONTO free→NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductor Equipment & MaterialsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is mixed, and management's track record is also neutral. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, ONTO is priced typically. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If ONTO cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $316.32. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $336 ONTO trades at 69× p/e, in line with its 63× p/e peer median. Our $311 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $220–$371. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 8% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.62x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.69 → $1.69 (+0.4% / 30d). 7 raised, 0 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 21.0% above current price.
3 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$265.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$570.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,024.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating guidance shows strong demand and good operations.
Confirms:Q2 revenue is between $320 million and $330 million, meeting or beating guidance.
Disproves:Q2 revenue is below $320 million, showing weaker demand.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ONTO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Indenture and Notes On May 21, 2026, Onto Innovation Inc. (the “Company”) issued $1,500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031 (the “Notes”). The Notes were issued pursuant to an Indenture, dated May 21, 2026 (the “Indenture”), between the Company and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association, as trustee (the “Trustee”). Pursuant to the purchase agreement between the Company and the representative of the in…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$220.00 – $371.00 (median $330.00) · 13 analysts · as of 2026-06-14
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductor Materials & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ONTO Onto Innovation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | full | elevated |
ASML ASML Holding N.V. | — | — | moderate |
LRCX Lam Research | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | elevated |
AMAT Applied Materials | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | full | moderate |
KLAC KLA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Onto Innovation announced a share buyback program using proceeds from convertible notes.
Onto Innovation plans to acquire a 27% stake in Rigaku Holdings for approximately $710 million.
Onto Innovation issued $1.3 billion of 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031.
Onto Innovation plans to acquire 27% of Rigaku Holdings Corporation's shares.
Why it matters: The buyback may help the stock price and show management's trust in the company.
Confirms:The stock price has gone up since the repurchase announcement.
Disproves:Stock price drops even with the buyback, showing market doubt.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing after recent changes. Investors will look for signs of growth or challenges.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Progress on the buyback can signal management's confidence in the company's value. It may also support the stock price.
Confirms:Management says they will increase the buyback amount or change the timeline.
Disproves:Management delays or cuts back on the buyback program.
Why it matters: Completing the acquisition can help Onto grow. It can also improve its market position.
Confirms:They say the acquisition of Rigaku Holdings shares is now complete.
Disproves:There may be a delay or cancellation of the acquisition deal.
Why it matters: Issuing convertible notes may change the company's finances and capital setup. Investors want to know how the money will be used.
Confirms one read:Company says it will use the money from the notes well for growth.
Confirms the other:Company reports poor use of proceeds leading to increased debt concerns.
Other Events. On May 18, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the pricing of the Notes. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. Concurrently with the offering of the Notes, the Company used $204,979,372.25 of the net proceeds from the offering to repurchase 805,325 shares of Onto Innovation Inc.’s Common Stock in privately negotiated transactions effected with or through one of the initial purchasers or one or more of…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The information set forth under
Other Events On May 18, 2026, Onto Innovation Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that the Company plans to commence, subject to market conditions and other factors, a private offering (the “Offering”) of $1,100,000,000 aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2031 (the “Notes”) to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”). A copy of the press release is at…