Onto Innovation (ONTO)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-30
$201.57-9.16%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-30
Research Workspace
Put ONTO beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Semiconductor Materials & Equipment is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Revenue growth of about 39% in FY26: Revenue growth: 35.3%.
View ThesisMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 4% on a typical day and fell roughly 48% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskONTO’s advanced-packaging growth is the core claim, with strong earnings quality supporting reported profits. Revenue growth accelerated from 9.5% to 35.3%, and the latest quarter beat estimates. ONTO trades at 37× P/E versus a 38× peer median. The price reflects less growth than our forecast, though the revenue-growth pillar is under pressure. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 19%. Peer multiples imply a price about 3% above where it trades; the thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. ONTO is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 12 analysts currently covering ONTO (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 6 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for ONTO in the last 4 months.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONTO Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Semiconductor Materials & Equipment — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put ONTO next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Drive growth in advanced nodes and advanced packaging
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $201.57
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $201.57.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Bullish initiation supports growth in advanced packaging.
Advances: Improve operating margins and earnings per share
New product launches expected to significantly improve operating margins.
Advances: Drive growth in advanced nodes and advanced packaging
Investment aligns with growth in advanced nodes and packaging.
Advances: Convertible notes issuance
Convertible notes issuance supports capital allocation strategy.