AXT Inc (AXTI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-29
$60.88-5.44%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put AXTI beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Semiconductor Materials & Equipment is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisManagement screens weak on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 183% growth a year, above the roughly 36% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 6% on a typical day and fell roughly 74% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskAXTI’s appeal rests on rapid revenue growth continuing, despite an unsteady management record and high risk. Revenue growth eased slightly, from 164% year over year in Q2 to 162% in Q3. Q3 non-GAAP EPS beat consensus, and reported revenue growth remained strong. AXTI trades at 32× sales versus a 5× peer median, while its own history is 35×. The market is pricing in more growth than our forecast. The 17% next-quarter miss probability and a sharp recent drop add specific risks. Peer multiples imply a price about 180% below where it trades; our read remains intact, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. AXTI is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 5 analysts currently covering AXTI (as of Oct 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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Compare AXTI with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXTI Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Semiconductor Materials & Equipment — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put AXTI next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Drive sequential revenue growth in Q1
Q4 EPS outlook and backlog above $500M support growth, though details are not official here.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Advances: Drive sequential revenue growth in Q1
Official earnings-call transcript can confirm operating progress and near-term growth objectives.
Advances: Expand indium phosphide manufacturing capacity
Reported indium phosphide price increases support supply economics and capacity expansion.
Advances: Expand integrated supply-chain capabilities
A long-term Lumentum supplier agreement supports integrated supply-chain capabilities and customer demand.
