Reading AXTI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AXTI free→Reading AXTI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AXTI free→
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductor Equipment & MaterialsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is high, and compared with sector peers, it is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 85% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $93.04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $93, AXTI's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 52× p/s (7.6× the 7× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~85% near-term growth vs our ~-18% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $52 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $28–$125. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 85% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.50x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.02 → $0.07 (+562.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 12.2% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$770.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,316.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,436.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue growth shows the company is on track for recovery. It is key for investor confidence.
Confirms:Q1 revenue shows sequential growth compared to Q4 of the previous year.
Disproves:Q1 revenue declines or stays flat compared to Q4 of the previous year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AXTI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. The information contained in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$28.00 – $125.00 (median $85.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-06-03
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductor Materials & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AXTI AXT Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 13 of 100 | expensive | high |
ASML ASML Holding N.V. | — | — | moderate |
LRCX Lam Research | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | elevated |
AMAT Applied Materials | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | full | moderate |
KLAC KLA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving sequential revenue growth in Q1, driven by indium phosphide demand.
Emphasize growth in indium phosphide to support AI infrastructure build-out.
Implement material modifications to the rights of security holders as part of capital allocation strategy.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026, AXT, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release, announcing the results, is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information in Exhibit 99.1 hereto discussing the Company’s results of operations and financial condition for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, is being “furnished” in accordance with Gene…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 20, 2026, AXT, Inc. (the “Company”) in a prospectus supplement filed with Securities and Exchange Commission pursuant to Rule 424(b)(5) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (“Securities Act”), disclosed that its anticipated revenues for the three months ended March 31, 2026, will range between $28 million and $26 million and its anticipated net loss attributed to the Company for the three months ended March 31, 2026, will range betwe…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Underwriting Agreement On April 21, 2026, AXT, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Northland Securities, Inc., as representative of the underwriters named therein (the “Underwriters”) related to the offer and sale of shares of the Company’s common stock (the “Offering”). The Underwriting Agreement provides for the offer and sale by the Company, and the purchase by th…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 19, 2026, AXT, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release, announcing the results, is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information in Exhibit 99.1 hereto discussing the Company’s results of operations and financial condition for the quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, i…