Reading LRCX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LRCX free→Reading LRCX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LRCX free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductor Equipment & MaterialsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 13% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If LRCX cuts guidance on the next call, that could be negative.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $369.34. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $389 LRCX trades at 73× p/e, in line with its 63× p/e peer median. Our $350 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $255–$575. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 11% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.04x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.67 → $1.67 (+0.0% / 30d). 24 raised, 0 cut, 27 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
8 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 25.4% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$233.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$516.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,001.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows strong demand and execution in a growing market.
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported at $6.6 billion or higher.
Disproves:Q2 revenue reported below $6.2 billion.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LRCX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section. Furthermore, the information in this item of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into the filings of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$255.00 – $575.00 (median $333.00) · 18 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductor Materials & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LRCX Lam Research | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | elevated |
ASML ASML Holding N.V. | — | — | moderate |
AMAT Applied Materials | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | full | elevated |
KLAC KLA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
TER Teradyne | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 5 guided quarters · -88.8% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Lam Research aims to achieve a revenue target of $6.6 billion for the quarter ending June 28, 2026.
Lam Research aims to sustain a gross margin of approximately 50.5% in the upcoming quarter.
Lam Research targets an operating margin of 36.5% for the quarter ending June 28, 2026.
Why it matters: This margin shows better efficiency and makes more money.
Confirms:Operating margin is 36.5% or higher.
Disproves:The operating margin is under 35%.
Why it matters: A drop in sector growth could signal broader challenges for Lam Research.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is below its usual average.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is above its usual average.
Why it matters: AI demand is a key driver for the semiconductor industry and Lam's growth.
Confirms one read:Revenue growth attributed to AI demand exceeds 15% year over year.
Confirms the other:Revenue growth from AI demand drops below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin shows good cost control and strong pricing.
Confirms:Gross margin reported at 50.5% or higher.
Disproves:Gross margin reported below 49.5%.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On February 3, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Lam Research Corporation (the “Company”), pursuant to applicable provisions of the Company’s Amended and Restated Bylaws, appointed Anirudh Devgan, Ph.D., age 56, as a director of the Company, effective immediately. In connection with the director appointment, the size of the board was inc…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On February 3, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Lam Research Corporation (the “Company”), pursuant to applicable provisions of the Company’s Amended and Restated Bylaws, appointed Anirudh Devgan, Ph.D., age 56, as a director of the Company, effective immediately. In connection with the director appointment, the size of the board was inc…
and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section. Furthermore, the information in this item of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into the filings of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On November 4, 2025, Lam Research Corporation (the “Company”) held its annual meeting of stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”). At the Annual Meeting, the Company’s stockholders approved a new equity incentive plan, the 2025 Stock Incentive Plan (the “2025 Plan”). A description of the 2025 Plan is set forth under “Proposal No. 3: Approval of the Adopt…