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Enphase Energy (ENPH)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this month
$52.40-4.02%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, ENPH is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Solar
- Market cap
- $7.19B
- Employees
- 2,872
- IPO date
- 2011-06-15
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-28
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $52.40. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$76.02consensus
Range $66.76 – $101.78
vs price: -31% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$73.98consensus
Range $68.54 – $87.02
vs price: -29% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $52 ENPH trades at 27× p/e, below its 63× p/e peer median. Our $78 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $27–$85. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
26.7x
peer 62.9x · own history 29.5x
Premium
0.4x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
-32%
our forecast -8%
Our fair value
$77.50
range $66.54 – $101.63
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 32% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
48th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.41x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
38th pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish17 analysts, 34% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.47 → $0.47 (-1.4% / 30d). 7 raised, 8 cut, 17 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 34% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 29.1% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$373.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$658.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,313.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'inexpensive'.
The valuation dimension changed, as the valuation label moved from "fair" to "inexpensive." Risk remained elevated. The macro backdrop was noted as a tailwind. The management dimension was stable.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 11d
Watch for Q2 revenue guidance to fall below $280 million
Why it matters: Falling below this level would signal ongoing revenue challenges, especially in the U.S. market.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue guidance below $280 million, indicating continued weakness in U.S. sales.
Disproves:Q2 revenue guidance is above $310 million. This suggests a strong recovery.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ENPH yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for ENPH and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like FSLR, SEDG, and SHLS keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting ENPH and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ENPH raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If ENPH cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like FSLR, SEDG, and SHLS start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping ENPH and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-151mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 13, 2026 , Enphase Energy, Inc. (the “Company”) held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”). At the Annual Meeting, the Company’s stockholders approved an amendment and restatement to the Company’s 2021 Equity Incentive Plan (the “2021 Plan”) to increase the number of shares of the Company’s common stock reserved for…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+7.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-15
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.