Reading MKSI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MKSI free→Reading MKSI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MKSI free→NASDAQInformation TechnologyScientific & Technical InstrumentsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating some uncertainty in MKSI's financial health. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind, suggesting favorable conditions in the industry. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on whether MKSI cuts guidance on the next call, as that could negatively impact estimates. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $366.31. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $375 MKSI trades at 44× p/e, below its 63× p/e peer median. Our $533 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $265–$400. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 30% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.70x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.37 → $2.95 (+24.3% / 30d). 12 raised, 0 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 21.5% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 15.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$211.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$491.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,006.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in MKS Instruments' growth momentum. It could impact investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MKSI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, MKS Inc. announced its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Form 8-K and the Exhibit attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be dee…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$265.00 – $400.00 (median $320.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductor Materials & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MKSI MKS Instruments | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
ASML ASML Holding N.V. | — | — | moderate |
LRCX Lam Research | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | elevated |
AMAT Applied Materials | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | full | moderate |
KLAC KLA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth across all markets and divisions.
Continue efforts to enhance gross profit margins through operational efficiencies.
Aim to increase net income through revenue growth and cost management.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating net income guidance shows good management and profit.
Confirms:Net income of $151 million, plus or minus $21 million, is achieved.
Disproves:Net income falls below $130 million.
Why it matters: High gross margins mean good cost control and strong pricing power in a tough market.
Confirms:Gross margin of 47% or higher in Q2 results.
Disproves:Gross margin drops below 46%.
Why it matters: Net income growth shows the company can make more money. This is important for success.
Confirms:Net income growth reported above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Net income growth reported below 10% year over year.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) On February 9, 2026, the Board of Directors of MKS Inc. (the “Company”) adopted an amendment and restatement of the MKS Inc. 2022 Stock Incentive Plan (as amended and restated, the “Amended Plan”), subject to shareholder approval at the Company’s 2026 annual meeting of shareholders (the “Annual Meeting”). At the Annual Meeting, held on May 11,…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 31, 2026, Kathleen F. Burke notified MKS Inc. (the “Corporation”) of her intent to retire as Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary of the Corporation effective June 1, 2026. Ms. Burke will remain employed in the role of special advisor to the Corporation until July 1, 2026. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the S…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 17, 2026, MKS Inc. announced its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Form 8-K and the Exhibit attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Notes Offering On February 4, 2026, MKS Inc. (the “Company”) completed its previously announced private offering (the “Offering”) of €1.0 billion aggregate principal amount of senior notes due 2034 (the “Notes”). The Notes were sold in a private placement to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers in reliance on Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), and to non-U.S. persons outside the…