MKS Instruments (MKSI)

NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$196.55+0.22%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge MKS Instruments’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

17.45 → 17.58 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$1.31B–$1.39B	—
Gross margin	46%–48%	—
Operating expenses	$341M–$351MGAAP $275M–$285Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.4B
EPS	—	3.92
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.08B
EPS	—	13.146
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	6.12B
EPS	—	17.579

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross margin stays near 47%	A primary condition in MKS Instruments's published investment case. The stated target is ~47% gross margin.	Intact	gross margin falls below 46% next quarter	Gross margin: 47.68% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~47% gross margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202647.676282 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3c1fe0ac-f456-4502-9b12-bfb9c694c32f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Management delivers on growth and margin goals	A supporting condition in MKS Instruments's published investment case. The stated target is maintain on-track status for key priorities.	Intact	management priorities fall off track or miss targets	Qualitative: 2 earnings beats, 1 in-line, positive analyst upgrades MKSI beat earnings in Q1 and Q2 2026; analysts raised targets on WFE and NAND outlooks. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income grows steadily	Net income grew from $62M to $84M.	Intact	net income growth falls below 7% YoY next year	Net income: $175M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income grows at least 7% YoY. Target and observation units differ. Source published Aug 6, 2026175,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3c1fe0ac-f456-4502-9b12-bfb9c694c32f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at least 7% per year	A primary condition in MKS Instruments's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year	Revenue: $1.248B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY revenue growth. Target and observation units differ. Source published Aug 6, 20261,248,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3c1fe0ac-f456-4502-9b12-bfb9c694c32f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$17.58

$15.22 → $17.58 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.12B

$5.56B → $6.12B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$15.22	$5,558,424,047	8 / 9
2026-07-25	$15.22	$5,558,424,047	8 / 9
2026-07-26	$15.36	$5,582,906,310	12 / 12
2026-07-27	$15.36	$5,582,906,310	12 / 12
2026-07-28	$15.36	$5,582,906,310	12 / 12
2026-07-29	$15.36	$5,582,885,429	8 / 9
2026-07-30	$15.36	$5,582,906,310	12 / 12
2026-07-31	$15.36	$5,582,906,310	12 / 12
2026-08-01	$15.36	$5,582,885,429	8 / 9
2026-08-02	$15.45	$5,602,971,250	12 / 12
2026-08-03	$15.45	$5,602,971,250	12 / 12
2026-08-04	$15.45	$5,602,971,250	12 / 12
2026-08-05	$15.45	$5,602,971,250	12 / 12
2026-08-06	$15.45	$5,602,961,977	8 / 9
2026-08-07	$15.45	$5,602,961,977	8 / 9
2026-08-08	$15.45	$5,602,961,977	8 / 9
2026-08-09	$17.03	$5,988,590,360	13 / 13
2026-08-10	$15.45	$5,602,961,977	8 / 9
2026-08-12	$17.50	$6,100,787,230	13 / 13
2026-08-13	$15.45	$5,602,961,977	8 / 9
2026-08-14	$15.45	$5,602,961,977	8 / 9
2026-08-15	$15.45	$5,602,961,977	8 / 9
2026-08-16	$15.45	$5,602,961,977	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$15.45	$5,602,961,977	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$15.45	$5,602,961,977	8 / 9
2026-08-19	$15.45	$5,602,961,977	8 / 9
2026-08-20	$17.50	$6,100,809,751	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$17.50	$6,100,809,751	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$17.50	$6,100,809,751	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$17.50	$6,100,809,751	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$17.50	$6,100,809,751	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$17.50	$6,100,809,751	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$17.50	$6,112,751,912	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$17.50	$6,112,751,912	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$17.50	$6,112,751,912	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$17.50	$6,112,751,912	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$17.50	$6,112,751,912	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$17.50	$6,112,751,912	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$17.50	$6,112,751,912	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$17.50	$6,112,751,912	8 / 9
2026-09-03	$17.50	$6,112,751,912	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$17.50	$6,112,751,912	8 / 10
2026-09-05	$17.50	$6,112,751,912	8 / 10
2026-09-06	$17.50	$6,112,751,912	8 / 10
2026-09-07	$17.50	$6,112,751,912	8 / 10
2026-09-08	$17.50	$6,112,751,912	8 / 10
2026-09-09	$17.50	$6,112,751,912	8 / 10
2026-09-10	$17.50	$6,112,751,912	8 / 10
2026-09-11	$17.50	$6,112,751,912	8 / 10
2026-09-12	$17.50	$6,112,751,912	8 / 10
2026-09-13	$17.50	$6,112,751,912	8 / 10
2026-09-14	$17.50	$6,112,751,912	8 / 10
2026-09-15	$17.40	$6,097,251,912	8 / 10
2026-09-16	$17.40	$6,097,251,912	8 / 10
2026-09-17	$17.40	$6,097,251,912	8 / 10
2026-09-18	$17.45	$6,098,909,382	8 / 10
2026-09-19	$17.45	$6,098,909,382	8 / 10
2026-09-20	$17.45	$6,098,909,382	8 / 10
2026-09-21	$17.45	$6,098,909,382	8 / 10
2026-09-22	$17.45	$6,098,909,382	8 / 10
2026-09-23	$17.45	$6,098,909,382	8 / 10
2026-09-24	$17.45	$6,098,909,382	8 / 10
2026-09-25	$17.45	$6,098,909,382	9 / 10
2026-09-26	$17.45	$6,098,909,382	9 / 10
2026-09-27	$17.45	$6,098,909,382	9 / 10
2026-09-28	$17.55	$6,114,409,382	9 / 10
2026-09-29	$17.55	$6,114,409,382	9 / 10
2026-09-30	$17.55	$6,114,409,382	9 / 10
2026-10-01	$17.55	$6,114,409,382	9 / 10
2026-10-02	$17.55	$6,114,409,382	9 / 10
2026-10-03	$17.55	$6,114,409,382	9 / 10
2026-10-04	$17.55	$6,114,409,382	9 / 10
2026-10-05	$17.55	$6,114,409,382	9 / 10
2026-10-06	$17.55	$6,114,409,382	9 / 10
2026-10-07	$17.55	$6,114,380,811	9 / 10
2026-10-08	$17.55	$6,114,409,382	9 / 10
2026-10-09	$17.55	$6,114,409,382	9 / 10
2026-10-10	$17.55	$6,114,409,382	9 / 10
2026-10-11	$17.55	$6,114,409,382	9 / 10
2026-10-12	$17.55	$6,114,409,382	9 / 10
2026-10-13	$17.55	$6,114,409,382	9 / 10
2026-10-14	$17.55	$6,114,409,382	9 / 10
2026-10-15	$17.55	$6,114,409,382	9 / 10
2026-10-16	$17.55	$6,114,410,782	9 / 10
2026-10-17	$17.55	$6,114,410,782	9 / 10
2026-10-18	$17.55	$6,114,410,354	9 / 10
2026-10-19	$17.55	$6,114,410,354	9 / 10
2026-10-20	$17.58	$6,119,653,211	9 / 10
2026-10-21	$17.58	$6,119,653,211	9 / 10
2026-10-22	$17.58	$6,119,653,211	9 / 10
2026-10-23	$17.58	$6,119,653,211	9 / 10
2026-10-24	$17.58	$6,119,653,211	9 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	1	1
2026-06-01	11	1	1
2026-07-01	11	1	1
2026-08-01	12	1	1
2026-09-01	12	1	1
2026-10-01	12	1	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross margin stays near 47%Gross margin: 47.68%
Net income grows steadilyNet income: $175M
Revenue grows at least 7% per yearPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-55.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

MKS Instruments outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MKSI is an industrial technology growth business with a multi-year thesis tied to semiconductor and advanced-packaging demand, rather than a low-risk story. The thesis is intact, though its signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable and the overall risk level is high.

What's priced into MKS Instruments

The valuation evidence points to MKSI being cheap versus peers, but that comparison has low model confidence. The priced-in tag is justified, with low measured fragility and no evidence of concentrated valuation pressure; the expectations gap is slightly negative.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results are strong: revenue rose from $1,033 million in 2025-Q4 to $1,248 million in 2026-Q2, above the high end of guidance, while margins and operating income improved. Management is delivering on growth and profitability priorities, and has taken concrete debt-management steps, though that priority remains mixed; guidance cuts and a history of deep misses are risks to monitor.

What MKS Instruments hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued growth in semiconductor and advanced packaging and on management maintaining operating discipline. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strength from sector bellwethers or Fed rate cuts would be favorable sector signals.