NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-15
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ
A valuation that evolves as the business changes.
A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.
View Living FV report and workflowThree key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain gross margin around 50.5% | Gross margin stays near 50.5%. | Intact | gross margin falls below 48% next quarter | Gross margin: 51.75% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~50.5%. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Sep 24, 202651.74973 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Date unavailable Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 347302ae-e6bc-46ff-8bd2-6948e86a82fb. Source status: unverified. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Gross margin improved from 49.8% in 2026-Q3 to 51.7% in 2026-Q4, with guidance maintaining around 52.0%. Management has consistently targeted this range, and the financials show progress delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026 |
Achieve operating margin of 36.5% | A primary condition in Lam Research's published investment case. The stated target is ~36.5%. | Intact | operating margin falls below 34% next quarter | Operating margin: 37.39% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~36.5%. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Sep 24, 202637.390643 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Date unavailable Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 347302ae-e6bc-46ff-8bd2-6948e86a82fb. Source status: unverified. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating margin increased from 35.0% in 2026-Q3 to 37.4% in 2026-Q4, with guidance targeting 39.5%. Management has consistently emphasized this range, and the financials show steady progress delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026 |
Increase revenue to $6.6 billion next quarter | Lam Research grows revenue to about $6.6 billion next quarter. | Intact | revenue falls below $6.0 billion next quarter | Revenue: $6.722B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $6.6 billion. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 20266,722,238,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $5.84 billion in 2026-Q3 to $6.72 billion in 2026-Q4, with guidance targeting approximately $8.1 billion for 2026-Q4. Management consistently emphasizes AI-driven demand fueling growth, and the trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
Comparable estimate history is unavailable.
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Compare required revenue and earningsLatest: 29 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Oct 21, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on technology and semiconductor equipment. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to growth.
The market appears to have priced in an expensive valuation, reflecting high expectations for future performance. There is an expectations gap, indicating that while the company is performing well, the premium compared to peers suggests that investors are cautious about potential risks.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable due to strong management execution and recent financial results. However, there is a near-term risk of missing guidance, which could negatively impact sentiment.
The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, the performance of sector leaders like NVDA and TSM, and LRCX's ability to maintain guidance without cuts. These elements will be crucial in shaping future performance.
Overall, LRCX's strong management and recent performance provide a solid foundation, but the high valuation and risks necessitate careful monitoring. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.