Onto Innovation (ONTO)

NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$198.68+0.01%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Onto Innovation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

11.77 → 11.76 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$380M–$400M	—
EPS	$2.18–$2.38non-GAAP $1.54–$1.7GAAP	—
Gross margin	57.3%–57.8%	—
Operating margin	21.4%–22.4%GAAP 31.5%–32.5%non-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	412.55M
EPS	—	2.476
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.44B
EPS	—	8.115
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.88B
EPS	—	11.76

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Successful acquisition of 27% stake in Rigaku for $710 million	The company repurchased $205 million of shares and acquired a 27% stake in Rigaku for $710 million.	Recovered	acquisition delayed beyond 2026 or materially downsized	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management announced the planned acquisition of 27% of Rigaku for $710M expected to close in H2 2026. The transaction remains on track with no reported delays, indicating progress toward completion and integration. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Share repurchases of about $205 million in Q2 2026	A supporting condition in Onto Innovation's published investment case. The stated target is repurchase ~$205 million shares.	Intact	repurchases fall significantly below $150 million in Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin near 56% and operating margin near 18% in Q2 2026	Profit margins stay near 56%.	Intact	gross margin falls below 50% or operating margin falls below 15% in Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of about 39% in FY26	A primary condition in Onto Innovation's published investment case. The stated target is >=38% YoY revenue growth.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 20% in FY26	Revenue growth: 35.3% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=38% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202635.304834 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1c69465e-9ede-4ba7-a594-e3c409269f7c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management announced the planned acquisition of 27% of Rigaku for $710M expected to close in H2 2026. The transaction remains on track with no reported delays, indicating progress toward completion and integration. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$11.76

$9.76 → $11.76 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$1.88B

$1.65B → $1.88B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.76	$1,654,082,081	8 / 8
2026-07-25	$9.76	$1,654,082,081	8 / 8
2026-07-26	$9.76	$1,654,082,081	8 / 8
2026-07-27	$9.76	$1,654,082,081	8 / 8
2026-07-28	$9.76	$1,654,082,081	8 / 8
2026-07-29	$9.76	$1,654,082,081	8 / 8
2026-07-30	$9.76	$1,654,082,081	8 / 8
2026-07-31	$9.76	$1,654,082,081	8 / 8
2026-08-01	$9.76	$1,654,082,081	8 / 8
2026-08-02	$9.76	$1,654,082,081	8 / 8
2026-08-03	$9.76	$1,654,082,081	8 / 8
2026-08-04	$9.76	$1,654,082,081	8 / 8
2026-08-05	$9.76	$1,654,082,081	8 / 8
2026-08-06	$9.76	$1,654,082,081	8 / 8
2026-08-07	$9.76	$1,654,083,899	8 / 8
2026-08-08	$9.76	$1,654,083,899	8 / 8
2026-08-09	$9.76	$1,654,083,899	8 / 8
2026-08-10	$9.76	$1,654,083,899	8 / 8
2026-08-12	$9.76	$1,654,083,899	8 / 8
2026-08-13	$9.76	$1,654,083,899	8 / 8
2026-08-14	$9.76	$1,654,083,899	8 / 8
2026-08-15	$9.76	$1,654,083,899	8 / 8
2026-08-16	$9.76	$1,654,083,899	8 / 8
2026-08-17	$9.76	$1,654,083,899	8 / 8
2026-08-18	$9.76	$1,654,083,899	8 / 8
2026-08-19	$9.76	$1,654,083,899	8 / 9
2026-08-20	$11.34	$1,848,727,196	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$11.34	$1,848,727,196	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$11.34	$1,848,727,196	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$11.65	$1,868,429,669	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$11.65	$1,868,429,669	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$11.65	$1,868,429,669	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$11.65	$1,868,429,669	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$11.65	$1,868,429,669	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$11.65	$1,868,429,669	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$11.65	$1,868,429,669	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$11.65	$1,868,429,669	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$11.65	$1,868,429,669	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$11.65	$1,868,429,669	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$11.65	$1,868,429,669	8 / 9
2026-09-03	$11.65	$1,868,429,669	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$11.65	$1,868,429,669	8 / 9
2026-09-05	$11.65	$1,868,429,669	8 / 9
2026-09-06	$11.65	$1,868,429,669	8 / 9
2026-09-07	$11.65	$1,868,429,669	8 / 9
2026-09-08	$11.65	$1,868,429,669	8 / 9
2026-09-09	$11.65	$1,868,429,669	8 / 9
2026-09-10	$11.69	$1,873,924,414	8 / 9
2026-09-11	$11.69	$1,873,924,414	8 / 9
2026-09-12	$11.76	$1,881,375,323	8 / 9
2026-09-13	$11.76	$1,881,375,323	8 / 9
2026-09-14	$11.76	$1,881,375,323	8 / 9
2026-09-15	$11.77	$1,882,738,959	8 / 9
2026-09-16	$11.77	$1,882,738,959	8 / 9
2026-09-17	$11.77	$1,882,738,959	8 / 9
2026-09-18	$11.77	$1,882,738,959	8 / 9
2026-09-19	$11.77	$1,882,738,959	8 / 9
2026-09-20	$11.77	$1,882,738,959	8 / 9
2026-09-21	$11.77	$1,882,738,959	8 / 9
2026-09-22	$11.77	$1,882,738,959	8 / 9
2026-09-23	$11.77	$1,882,738,959	8 / 9
2026-09-24	$11.77	$1,882,738,959	8 / 9
2026-09-25	$11.77	$1,882,738,959	8 / 9
2026-09-26	$11.77	$1,882,738,959	8 / 9
2026-09-27	$11.77	$1,882,739,868	8 / 9
2026-09-28	$11.76	$1,881,376,232	8 / 9
2026-09-29	$11.76	$1,881,376,232	8 / 9
2026-09-30	$11.76	$1,881,376,232	8 / 9
2026-10-01	$11.76	$1,881,376,232	8 / 9
2026-10-02	$11.76	$1,881,376,232	8 / 9
2026-10-03	$11.76	$1,882,178,213	8 / 10
2026-10-04	$11.76	$1,882,178,213	8 / 10
2026-10-05	$11.76	$1,882,178,213	8 / 10
2026-10-06	$11.76	$1,882,178,213	8 / 10
2026-10-07	$11.76	$1,882,178,213	8 / 10
2026-10-08	$11.76	$1,882,178,213	8 / 10
2026-10-09	$11.76	$1,882,178,213	8 / 10
2026-10-10	$11.76	$1,882,178,213	8 / 10
2026-10-11	$11.76	$1,882,178,213	8 / 10
2026-10-12	$11.76	$1,882,178,213	8 / 10
2026-10-13	$11.76	$1,882,178,213	8 / 10
2026-10-14	$11.76	$1,882,178,213	8 / 10
2026-10-15	$11.76	$1,882,178,213	8 / 10
2026-10-16	$11.76	$1,882,178,213	8 / 10
2026-10-17	$11.76	$1,882,178,213	8 / 10
2026-10-18	$11.76	$1,882,178,213	8 / 10
2026-10-19	$11.76	$1,882,178,213	8 / 10
2026-10-20	$11.76	$1,882,144,879	8 / 10
2026-10-21	$11.76	$1,882,144,879	8 / 10
2026-10-22	$11.76	$1,882,144,879	8 / 10
2026-10-23	$11.76	$1,882,144,879	8 / 10
2026-10-24	$11.76	$1,882,144,879	8 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	0	0
2026-06-01	10	0	0
2026-07-01	10	0	0
2026-08-01	11	0	0
2026-09-01	11	0	0
2026-10-01	12	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 2

$400.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$220.00$440.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Successful acquisition of 27% stake in Rigaku for $710 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Share repurchases of about $205 million in Q2 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Gross margin near 56% and operating margin near 18% in Q2 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth of about 39% in FY26Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

4.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-47.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Onto Innovation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented semiconductor equipment business, with recent results led by advanced nodes and advanced packaging. The multi-year view is intact and has become mildly favorable, but risk remains high and confidence in the valuation evidence is low.

What's priced into Onto Innovation

The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure points to ONTO being cheap versus peers, while another shows a substantial peer premium, and the expectations gap is negative. The snapshot labels pricing as justified and fragility as low, but does not establish a clear valuation cushion.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong: second-quarter revenue rose 17.5% sequentially and 35.3% year over year, while Advanced Nodes revenue grew 50% sequentially and advanced-packaging revenue reached an all-time high. A backlog above $1 billion supports the current growth trajectory, though a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback; the company also has a history of a deep miss and peers have recently missed.

What Onto Innovation hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on continued growth in advanced nodes and packaging, and on completing and integrating the planned Rigaku stake acquisition, which remains on track but is rated mixed. Near-term outcomes also depend on guidance and semiconductor-sector signals: continued strong results from major peers or lower interest rates would support the backdrop, while weaker guidance would weigh on the business case.