Applied Materials (AMAT)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$409.29-4.82%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Applied Materials’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

18.67 → 18.75 EPS · FY ending Oct 26, 2027 · 24 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 23 to 24; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Invest $500 million to expand system manufacturing and R&D	The company invests $500 million to expand manufacturing and R&D capacity.	Intact	Investment plans materially reduced or delayed in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS growth consistent with guidance of $3.16 to $3.56 next quarter	A primary condition in Applied Materials's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $3.16 next quarter (2026-07-31).	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $3.16 next quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Grow semiconductor equipment business by 20% in 2026	Applied Materials aims to grow its semiconductor equipment business by 20% in 2026.	Improving	YoY semiconductor equipment revenue growth falls below ~7% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $7.01B in 2026-Q1 to $9.12B in 2026-Q3 (+30%), with Semiconductor Systems segment revenue increasing from $5.14B to $7.04B (+37%). CEO reiterated the 30%+ growth target for 2026 and the trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-10-26 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$18.75

$16.87 → $18.75 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$46.81B

$42.99B → $46.81B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$16.87	$42,988,105,822	20 / 26
2026-07-25	$16.87	$42,988,105,822	20 / 26
2026-07-26	$16.93	$43,095,868,369	19 / 25
2026-07-27	$16.93	$43,095,868,369	19 / 25
2026-07-28	$16.93	$43,095,868,369	19 / 25
2026-07-29	$16.93	$43,095,868,369	19 / 25
2026-07-30	$16.93	$43,095,868,369	19 / 25
2026-07-31	$16.93	$43,095,868,369	19 / 25
2026-08-01	$16.93	$43,095,868,369	19 / 25
2026-08-02	$16.93	$43,095,868,369	19 / 25
2026-08-03	$16.93	$43,095,868,369	19 / 25
2026-08-04	$16.93	$43,095,868,369	19 / 25
2026-08-05	$16.93	$43,095,868,369	19 / 25
2026-08-06	$16.93	$43,095,868,369	19 / 25
2026-08-07	$17.05	$43,128,303,560	19 / 25
2026-08-08	$17.05	$43,128,303,560	19 / 25
2026-08-09	$17.05	$43,128,303,560	19 / 25
2026-08-10	$17.05	$43,128,303,560	19 / 25
2026-08-11	$17.05	$43,128,303,560	19 / 25
2026-08-12	$17.05	$43,128,303,560	19 / 25
2026-08-13	$17.05	$43,128,303,560	19 / 25
2026-08-14	$17.05	$43,128,303,560	19 / 25
2026-08-15	$17.05	$43,128,303,560	19 / 25
2026-08-16	$17.05	$43,128,303,560	20 / 26
2026-08-17	$17.05	$43,128,303,560	20 / 26
2026-08-18	$17.05	$43,128,303,560	20 / 26
2026-08-19	$17.05	$43,128,303,560	20 / 26
2026-08-20	$17.05	$43,128,303,560	20 / 26
2026-08-21	$18.67	$46,764,027,106	23 / 26
2026-08-22	$18.67	$46,741,026,202	23 / 26
2026-08-23	$18.67	$46,741,026,202	23 / 26
2026-08-24	$18.67	$46,741,026,202	23 / 26
2026-08-25	$18.67	$46,742,059,535	23 / 26
2026-08-26	$18.67	$46,742,059,535	23 / 26
2026-08-27	$18.67	$46,742,059,535	23 / 26
2026-08-28	$18.67	$46,742,059,535	23 / 26
2026-08-29	$18.67	$46,736,960,841	23 / 26
2026-08-30	$18.67	$46,736,960,841	23 / 26
2026-08-31	$18.67	$46,736,960,841	23 / 26
2026-09-01	$18.67	$46,736,960,841	23 / 26
2026-09-02	$18.67	$46,736,960,841	23 / 26
2026-09-03	$18.67	$46,741,784,657	23 / 26
2026-09-04	$18.67	$46,741,784,657	23 / 26
2026-09-05	$18.67	$46,741,784,657	23 / 26
2026-09-06	$18.67	$46,741,784,657	23 / 26
2026-09-07	$18.67	$46,741,784,657	23 / 26
2026-09-08	$18.67	$46,741,784,657	23 / 26
2026-09-09	$18.67	$46,741,784,657	22 / 26
2026-09-10	$18.67	$46,741,784,657	22 / 26
2026-09-11	$18.67	$46,741,784,657	23 / 26
2026-09-12	$18.67	$46,741,784,657	23 / 26
2026-09-13	$18.67	$46,741,784,657	23 / 26
2026-09-14	$18.67	$46,741,784,657	23 / 26
2026-09-15	$18.67	$46,741,784,657	23 / 26
2026-09-16	$18.67	$46,741,784,657	23 / 26
2026-09-17	$18.67	$46,741,784,657	23 / 26
2026-09-18	$18.67	$46,741,784,657	23 / 26
2026-09-19	$18.67	$46,741,784,657	23 / 26
2026-09-20	$18.67	$46,741,784,657	23 / 26
2026-09-21	$18.67	$46,741,784,657	23 / 26
2026-09-22	$18.67	$46,741,784,657	23 / 26
2026-09-23	$18.72	$46,741,784,657	23 / 26
2026-09-24	$18.72	$46,741,784,657	23 / 26
2026-09-25	$18.72	$46,741,799,550	23 / 27
2026-09-26	$18.71	$46,751,930,815	23 / 27
2026-09-27	$18.71	$46,751,930,815	23 / 27
2026-09-28	$18.71	$46,751,930,815	23 / 27
2026-09-29	$18.72	$46,765,035,133	23 / 27
2026-09-30	$18.72	$46,765,035,133	23 / 27
2026-10-01	$18.72	$46,765,035,133	24 / 27
2026-10-02	$18.72	$46,765,020,705	24 / 27
2026-10-03	$18.72	$46,765,020,705	24 / 27
2026-10-04	$18.72	$46,765,020,705	24 / 27
2026-10-05	$18.72	$46,765,020,705	24 / 27
2026-10-06	$18.73	$46,778,115,455	24 / 27
2026-10-07	$18.73	$46,778,115,455	24 / 27
2026-10-08	$18.73	$46,778,115,455	24 / 27
2026-10-09	$18.74	$46,784,365,455	24 / 27
2026-10-10	$18.74	$46,792,615,455	24 / 27
2026-10-11	$18.74	$46,792,615,455	24 / 27
2026-10-12	$18.74	$46,792,615,455	24 / 27
2026-10-13	$18.74	$46,792,615,455	24 / 27
2026-10-14	$18.76	$46,807,857,312	24 / 27
2026-10-15	$18.75	$46,807,886,012	24 / 27

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	33	8	0
2026-06-01	32	8	1
2026-07-01	32	7	1
2026-08-01	32	7	0
2026-09-01	34	7	0
2026-10-01	33	7	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 33 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Evercore ISIOct 15

$590.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleySep 28 · prior Aug 14

$642.00 → $563.00-12.3%

$0$353.10$706.20

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Invest $500 million to expand system manufacturing and R&DDirect metric needs a verified mapping
EPS growth consistent with guidance of $3.16 to $3.56 next quarterDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Grow semiconductor equipment business by 20% in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 12, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-42.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Applied Materials outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on the semiconductor equipment sector. The current thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, but faces elevated risks and mixed management execution.

What's priced into Applied Materials

The market appears to have priced in a stretched valuation, reflecting concerns over execution quality and overall fragility. There is a notable expectations gap, indicating that investors may be cautious about future performance relative to peers.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with growth targets, particularly in the semiconductor equipment business, which saw significant revenue increases. However, there is a low probability of missing guidance, although recent industry trends raise some caution.

What Applied Materials hinges on

The future trajectory hinges on macroeconomic factors, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, and the performance of key sector peers like NVDA and TSM. Additionally, any cuts to guidance from AMAT could negatively impact sentiment.