VirnetX Holding Corp (VHC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-14
$11.07-3.74%
Close 2026-09-14 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-14
Research Workspace
Put VHC beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Systems Software: fringe margins under pressure (2q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — Free cash flow improves from negative to near breakeven: FCF yield -39.8% vs 0% target.
View ThesisManagement screens weak on capital allocation, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 179% growth a year, above the roughly 100% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 3% on a typical day and fell roughly 59% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskVHC's growth depends on improving free cash flow and revenue performance. Recent financial results have been weak, with a significant miss last quarter. The stock trades at 256× sales, compared to a peer median of 4×. This suggests the market expects much higher growth than our forecast. If VHC misses again next quarter, the stock could face continued pressure. Peer multiples imply a price about 184% below where it trades. Our read remains provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-14. VHC is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
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Compare VHC with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VHC Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Systems Software — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put VHC next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-14. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.