Reading UTZ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UTZ free→Reading UTZ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UTZ free→NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from UTZ and the performance of sector bellwethers like KHC, GIS, and HRL. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.22. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $7.22 UTZ trades at 9× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $8.00 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $10–$15. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 10% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted -14.31x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.19 → $0.18 (-0.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 73% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$158.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$420.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,216.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Better earnings could indicate that Utz is moving past its current loss-making phase. This is crucial for investor confidence.
Confirms:The earnings report shows a better profit margin than last quarter.
Disproves:The earnings report shows ongoing losses or no change in profit margins.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for UTZ yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Resignation of Principal Operating Officer On May 26, 2026, Mitchell Arends, the EVP, Chief Integrated Supply Chain Officer and principal operating officer of Utz Brands, Inc. (the “Company”) informed the Company of his intention to resign from his position at the Company, effective June 19, 2026. Mr. Arends tendered his resignation to assume a rol…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$10.00 – $15.00 (median $12.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-04-14
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Packaged Foods & Meats.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UTZ Utz Brands, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | fair | elevated |
MDLZ Mondelez International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HSY Hershey Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KHC Kraft Heinz | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSN Tyson Foods | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Utz aims to keep capital expenditures within the range of $60 million to $65 million for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has consistently guided capital expenditures to be between $60 million and $65 million for fiscal year 2026. This reflects a stable capital allocation strategy, though no specific expenditure figures for the current quarter are provided to assess delivery.
“Capital expenditures in the range of $60 to $65 million.”
“Capital expenditures in the range of $60 to $65 million.”
Utz targets adjusted free cash flow in the range of $60 million to $80 million for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company aims for adjusted free cash flow between $60 million and $80 million for 2026. However, the financials do not provide current quarter cash flow figures to evaluate progress towards this target.
“Adjusted Free Cash Flow in the range of $60 and $80 million.”
Utz reaffirms its revenue growth guidance of 2% to 3% for fiscal year 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue grew from $342.2M in 2025-Q4 to $361.3M in 2026-Q1, indicating positive momentum towards the 2% to 3% growth target. The trajectory suggests progress in line with guidance.
Why it matters: Strong retail sales could boost demand for Utz products. This is key for its growth outlook.
Confirms:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth above 1% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales growth is flat or negative month over month.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a positive shift for Utz Brands. This would help improve its current loss-making status.
Confirms:Three-year revenue growth in the sector exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Three-year revenue growth remains below 4% year over year.
is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Forward-Looking Statements This Current Report on Form 8-K includes certain statements that are not historical facts but are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the “safe…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Utz Brands, Inc. (NYSE: UTZ) (the “Company”) announced via press release the Company’s financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 29, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is hereby incorporated by reference into this
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 12, 2026, Utz Brands, Inc. (the “Company”) announced via press release the Company’s financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 28, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is hereby incorporated by reference into this
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 3, 2026, Utz Brands, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that it would reclassify costs associated with operating its inter-location logistics, Direct Store Delivery (“DSD”) distribution centers, and outbound shipping and handling activities from Selling, Distribution and Administrative to Cost of Goods Sold within the Consolidated Statements of Operations and Comprehensive Income (Loss) effective for the fourth quarter of 2025. Additionall…
“Adjusted Free Cash Flow in the range of $60 and $80 million.”
“We are reaffirming all aspects of our 2026 guidance.”