Reading TYGO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TYGO free→Reading TYGO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TYGO free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, which is a concern. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 48% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while financials are weak. If TYGO cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.84. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.84 TYGO trades at 2× p/s, below its 4× p/s peer median. Our $5.42 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 48% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.47x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.01 → $-0.01 (-250.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$317.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$914.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,964.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth below the median could signal weakening demand for Tigo Energy's products. This would impact investor confidence.
Confirms:Tigo Energy's revenue growth is below the sector median. This shows demand is getting weaker.
Disproves:Revenue growth is above the sector median. This suggests demand is strong and stable.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TYGO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Tigo Energy, Inc. (the “Company”) reported its earnings for its first fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release containing this information is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Se…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Information Technology (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TYGO Tigo Energy Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | full | moderate |
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. | — | — | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management anticipates revenue growth of 26% to 30% for the full year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue for 2025-Q4 was $30.029 million, and for 2026-Q1 it was $25.197 million. The guidance for 2026 anticipates revenue between $130 million and $135 million, indicating a focus on growth. However, the revenue in 2026-Q1 decreased compared to 2025-Q4, showing limited progress towards the annual target.
“The Company continues to anticipate revenues to be between $130.0 million and $135.0 million.”
“The Company anticipates revenue growth of 26% to 30%, resulting in revenue between $130 million and $135 million.”
Management expects adjusted EBITDA to be within the range of $1.0 million to $3.0 million for 2026-Q2.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026-Q2 is set between $1.0 million and $3.0 million. The financials for 2026-Q1 show a net income of -$1.75 million, indicating a challenging environment. The trajectory for achieving positive EBITDA remains uncertain given the current financial performance.
“Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be within the range of $1.0 million to $3.0 million.”
Management aims to maintain a stable gross profit margin despite revenue fluctuations.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross profit decreased from $13.354 million in 2025-Q4 to $10.794 million in 2026-Q1. Despite revenue fluctuations, management's focus on maintaining margins is evident, but the recent decline suggests limited progress in sustaining the desired margin levels.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into revenue and cost trends. Investors will look for signs of improvement in profitability.
Confirms one read:The company sets a date for its next earnings report. This shows it values transparency.
Confirms the other:There is no news about the next earnings date. This may mean there is uncertainty.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 31, 2026, Tigo Energy, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a revolving credit facility (the “Credit Facility”) among the Company, as borrower, Tigo Energy MergeCo, Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company (“Tigo MergeCo”), as guarantor, and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as lender. The obligations of the Company under the Credit Facility are guaranteed by Tigo MergeCo. Aggregate commitments under the Credit Facility total up to…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Executive Short Term Incentive Plan On March 17, 2026, the Compensation Committee (the “Committee”) of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Tigo Energy, Inc. (the “Company”) approved an annual Executive Short Term Incentive Plan (the “STI Plan”) for the Company’s key executives, including its named executive officers. Under the STI Plan, partici…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 24, 2026, Tigo Energy, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “ Purchase Agreement ”) with certain institutional investors (the “ Investors ”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell, in a registered direct offering (the “ Offering ”), an aggregate of 5,000,000 shares of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (“ Common Stock ”), at a purchase price of $3.00 per share (the…
“Gross profit for 2026-Q1 was $10.794 million.”
“Gross profit for 2025-Q4 was $13.354 million.”
“Gross profit for 2025-Q3 was $13.061 million.”