Reading TRAK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TRAK free→Reading TRAK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TRAK free→NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and the company has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is high, though the sector backdrop is a tailwind, with TRAK performing above typical compared to its sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.64. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.64 TRAK trades at 26× p/e, in line with its 21× p/e peer median. Our $7.78 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 24% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.03x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.09 → $0.09 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$199.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$445.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,497.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth could signal a larger issue within the company. It may reflect broader sector trends.
Confirms:Revenue growth is below the sector median. This shows possible weakness.
Disproves:Revenue growth is above the sector median. This shows stability.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TRAK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On March 29, 2026, ReposiTrak, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into an amendment (the “ Amendment ”) to that certain Services Agreement dated March 13, 2026 (the “ Agreement ”) by and between the Company and SPAR Group, Inc. (the “ Client ”), which Agreement was entered into in the ordinary course of business. Under the terms of the Agreement, the Company agreed to provide certain services the (“ Services ”) to the Client for a one-year term beginning March 13, 2026. In accordanc…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TRAK ReposiTrak, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | high |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing diluted earnings per share to $0.28 for the fiscal year ending 2026.
Continue the policy of distributing a quarterly cash dividend of $0.02 per share.
Why it matters: The outcome could affect how the company runs and its money situation. Legal issues can make investors unsure.
Confirms:A court decision helps ReposiTrak. It ends the case in a good way.
Disproves:A court decision goes against ReposiTrak. This may lead to fines or limits.
In accordance with General Instruction B.2 for Form 8-K, the information in this Form 8-K, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, shall not be deemed “ filed ” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ” ), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensation Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 17, 2026, ReposiTrak, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing the appointment of James Gillis as a member of the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”), effective March 13, 2026. Mr. Gillis was also appointed as a member of the Audit and Compensation Committees of the Board of Directors. Mr. Gillis, 72, is currently the Chief…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 16, 2026 (the “ Effective Date ”), PC Group, Inc. (“ PC Group ”), a subsidiary of ReposiTrak, Inc. (the “ Company ”), executed and funded a Senior Unsecured Promissory Note (the “ Note ”) with SPAR Marketing Force, Inc. (the “ Borrower ”), pursuant to which PC Group provided the Borrower with a loan facility in an aggregate principal amount of up to $4,000,000. The transaction is part of a strategic commercial relationship between the Compa…
Other Events. On March 20, 2026, ReposiTrak, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release to announce the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend of $0.02 per share ($0.08 per share annually) of the Company's common stock, par value $0.01 per share, payable on or about May 15, 2026 to stockholders of record on March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 for Form 8-K, the information in…