Reading TPH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TPH free→Reading TPH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TPH free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record is volatile, with frequent changes. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and TPH trades below typical compared to peers. Risk is moderate. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $46.95. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.79x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.46 → $0.44 (-3.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 17% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$11.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$273.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,747.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The merger's completion will impact Tri Pointe Homes' operations and strategy. It could enhance growth and resources.
Confirms:The merger is completed and all conditions are satisfied by the expected date.
Disproves:The merger may be delayed or not get approval from regulators or stockholders.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TPH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Changes in Control of Registrant. As a result of the consummation of the Merger, a change in control of the Company occurred, and the Company became an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Parent. The disclosure set forth in the Introductory Note of this Current Report and the disclosure set forth in Items 2.01, 3.01, 5.02, and 5.03 of this Current Report is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Homebuilding.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TPH Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 12 of 100 | — | moderate |
DHI D. R. Horton | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PHM PulteGroup | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
LEN Lennar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NVR NVR, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | fair | moderate |
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize the merger with Sumitomo Forestry to become an indirect wholly owned subsidiary.
Modify rights of security holders in connection with the merger completion.
Enter into amendments to indemnification agreements with non-employee directors.
Why it matters: The merger is complete. This led to a request to remove the stock. It affects how many shares are available and how investors can access them.
Confirms:The NYSE confirms the suspension of trading for TPH stock.
Disproves:Trading resumes on the NYSE without issues related to the merger.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how the company is doing after the merger.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows more revenue and profit than in Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows revenue and profit are still going down.
Why it matters: Changes to security holder rights can affect how investors feel and where they put their money.
Confirms one read:TPH shares good terms for security holders in the merger changes.
Confirms the other:Investors are unhappy with changes to their rights.
Why it matters: The drop in revenue after the merger shows a change is happening. Signs of recovery mean there could be stability and growth.
Confirms:Q2 revenue is over $600M. This shows a recovery from the drop last quarter.
Disproves:Q2 revenue is still below $521.4M. This shows ongoing weakness after the merger.
Why it matters: Changes to rights can affect shareholder value and trust. This matters for capital use.
Confirms:A new announcement will give rights that help security holders.
Disproves:There are reports of more negative changes to security holders' rights.
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. In connection with the consummation of the Merger, the Company requested that the New York Stock Exchange (“ NYSE ”) suspend trading of the Company Common Stock effective before the opening of trading on May 14, 2026, and file with the SEC a Notification of Removal from Listing and/or Registration on Form 25 to delist the Company Common Stock from the NYSE and deregister the Company Common Sto…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. On May 14, 2026, the Merger was completed. Upon the consummation of the Merger, the Company became an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Parent. The disclosure set forth in the Introductory Note of this Current Report is incorporated herein by reference.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. The Company entered into amendments to the indemnification agreements between the Company and its non-employee directors, effective as of May 14, 2026. The amendments provide that, following his or her term as a director of the Company, the applicable indemnitee is entitled to receive a payment of $10,000 for each day on which he or she is required or requested by the Company to spend more than four hours addressing any proceeding related to his or…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, as of the Effective Time, Steven J. Gilbert, Lawrence B. Burrows, R. Kent Grahl, Vicki D. McWilliams, and Constance B. Moore resigned as directors (and from all committees thereof, as applicable) of the Company. Further, effective as of the Effective Time, and until successors are duly elected or appointed and qual…